After the past 3 months of playing once/week up at Tulalip (with 2 weekends I played Friday and Saturday), I've got an off weekend. I'm down in Orlando visiting my grandparents. Grandpa has pancreatic cancer, and is likely to start treatments in about 2-3 weeks. If the PET scans he just had done are not promising, though, well....he may skip the treatments and just go when it's time.
What a helluva scary decision that must be to make.
Anyway...
So normally, this time of the week I'd be at the tables (I start around 3-4pm Pacific and go for 1-16 hours typically). The last break I took was when I was running really bad, and the break was good for me to examine my game.
This time, though, I've been on fire. Yea, luck-boxed into some pots. But I'll tell ya - I feel better and more confident about my game today than I ever have. I fell like I've finally, after all these years, finally I've begun to flourish into a real poker player.
I need to work on some aspects of my game. I know I need to come up with a physical routine at the tables, as I know I give off some physical tells to observant players. I need to continue to work on my value betting. And I'd like to get to the level where I'm trying to misrepresent my hand to my oponent...
These will be necessary for me to be sucessful once I step up to $3/$5. The $1/$3 game (with the $200 buy in) is playing a lot like the old 2-5 game was playing, just not quite as big. It's really the perfect game for where I'm at though: can beat the players, can beat the rake, can build a bankroll, can have losing sessions that won't be psychologically devastating... you know, moving up may not happen for quite a while.
I'd like to make more money at the game, and I will take a shot at some point, but for now - I'm earning enough to pay for school and books, and to sock some away for when I"m in my poorly paid internship next summer. Yea, I want to step up, but my bankroll would be in jeopardy after 1 really bad night. I can't jeopardize my poker career just by taking a shot at the next level. I'm not worried about the play there: I'm confident I will do fine at that level. At this point, though, one $3/$5 downswing would hurt the roll and my psyche too much...
I'd love to be at the tables... as much as I'm loving the vacation, I've got two things I'm looking forward to next weekend: Friday, Angel and I are going to a play then a late dinner (and perhaps dessert at my place), then Saturday - back up at the tables.
Showing posts with label bankroll management. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bankroll management. Show all posts
Saturday, August 16, 2008
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Is it sustainable?
Over the last 2 months I've booked pretty big wins overall. My sessions are typically approx 12 hours long, and I've been averaging about 17 big blinds per hour.
I wonder how sustainable this is, though. The games are playing bigger (the bigger buy-in level and the $1/$3 structure had a much bigger effect on the game than I had anticipated), and my bankroll is stable enough that I am very very comfortable playing for big pots and making large bets if I think I'll earn the pot.
The last two weekends were hudge wins ($1400 and $1555). I know some of it is the luck of the draw, but some has got to be my play: I've become much better at reads, and playing position aggressively. But I wonder how much is luck, and how much is me. There are players who I view as better than me that I've seen consistently walk away from the tables with much less profit.
I guess only time will tell which is the case, but I'm feeling really great about my game: I feel like I'm able to put my opponents on ranges pretty accurately, I've become very good at figuring out what I think my opponent thinks I have, I've become able to sniff out weakness, I'm able to use scare cards to bet my opponents off of likely winning hands...
I hope it's not just ROT...
On another note: while I had been expecting to step up to $3/$5, I'm not going to do that any time soon: the $1/$3 games are playing big enough that I'm sticking there for a while. Plus, and even though I'm doing well, losing 3 buy ins in an evening is possible in any game (I always come prepared with 3 full buy-ins), which in the $3/$5 game would mean $1500. I'm not sure I'm psychologically OK with the possibility of losing $1500 in one night. I'm OK with $600, but I fell like I'd be playing too scared. Maybe not, though, we'll see. In all honesty my bankroll is still not big enough to play comfortably there.
I wonder how sustainable this is, though. The games are playing bigger (the bigger buy-in level and the $1/$3 structure had a much bigger effect on the game than I had anticipated), and my bankroll is stable enough that I am very very comfortable playing for big pots and making large bets if I think I'll earn the pot.
The last two weekends were hudge wins ($1400 and $1555). I know some of it is the luck of the draw, but some has got to be my play: I've become much better at reads, and playing position aggressively. But I wonder how much is luck, and how much is me. There are players who I view as better than me that I've seen consistently walk away from the tables with much less profit.
I guess only time will tell which is the case, but I'm feeling really great about my game: I feel like I'm able to put my opponents on ranges pretty accurately, I've become very good at figuring out what I think my opponent thinks I have, I've become able to sniff out weakness, I'm able to use scare cards to bet my opponents off of likely winning hands...
I hope it's not just ROT...
On another note: while I had been expecting to step up to $3/$5, I'm not going to do that any time soon: the $1/$3 games are playing big enough that I'm sticking there for a while. Plus, and even though I'm doing well, losing 3 buy ins in an evening is possible in any game (I always come prepared with 3 full buy-ins), which in the $3/$5 game would mean $1500. I'm not sure I'm psychologically OK with the possibility of losing $1500 in one night. I'm OK with $600, but I fell like I'd be playing too scared. Maybe not, though, we'll see. In all honesty my bankroll is still not big enough to play comfortably there.
Monday, July 7, 2008
Roller Coaster
I've finally come to the understanding that my particular style of play is going to result in sometimes large swings, even within a session. I play a lot of speculative hands. I splash around in a lot of pots. I take stabs at a lot of pots. I give a lot of action. And, in return, I get a lot of action. When the big pots come around, though, I'm typically the one holding the goods.
Case in point:
Saturday night, Tulalip Casino. I'm on my 3rd $100 buy in due to pushing some big draws and bricking out. Standard.
I limp in on the button with 3h5h. 6 of us see the flop:
924, rainbow.
Checks to me, I just check (OESD? Sure, I'll take a free card, esp. with BB's propensity to check-raise).
Turn: [924] A
Boy, I'm hoping somebody's got an ace, maybe even an ace-rag 2 pair. Checks to me again, I bet $10. Both blinds call, others fold.
River: [924A] 6
Well, my straight just got bigger. I've got the nuts. Checks to me, I put in a bet of $30 ($40 in the pot). SB grudgingly calls. Then the BB min-raises to $60. I've got about $250 left; there is about $160 in the pot. He likes his hand, and I know he'll call a raise, only question is how much.
Though it's a little risky, I go in for the kill and OBFV: all in, baby!
SB, as expected, folds. BB, who is a very good player, one who I mostly tried to avoid at the table, thinks. And thinks. And thinks. He tanks for a long time. I'm tempted to call clock, but I don't want to scare him into folding. He's stared at the board long enough that he should see the possible straight, but isn't talking about that: he's worried about a slow-played set. Which of course means he hit two pair on the turn.
Eventually, he calls. I say "the nuts" and show, he flashes me A2 for top and bottom pair.
Total win from this trip: $659. I had almost $1K in chips at the table. The last $1/$2 game broke up around 7am. I was tempted to keep playing, and sit in the $3/$5 game, but after 15 hours at the table, I didn't think my decision-making abilities would be top-notch, so I decided not to try that.
I will be taking a shot at $3/5 sometime in the coming months. I've played 3/5 before, and was comfortable playing there. I'm just trying to be more prudent about my bankroll, because in all honesty I wasn't bankrolled to play 3/5. And even my 1/2 bankroll is slightly short because I keep using it to pay for things like tuition and school books and stuff (yes, I'm paying my way for my chemical dependency professional certification with poker winnings... some may call that slightly ironic). But once I hit a certain mark I'm going to take $600 and sit at the 3/5 table (that'd be 2 max buy-ins), and see how it goes.
On a side note, Grandpa goes in for surgery Tuesday at 2:30 EST. Think good thoughts.
Case in point:
Saturday night, Tulalip Casino. I'm on my 3rd $100 buy in due to pushing some big draws and bricking out. Standard.
I limp in on the button with 3h5h. 6 of us see the flop:
924, rainbow.
Checks to me, I just check (OESD? Sure, I'll take a free card, esp. with BB's propensity to check-raise).
Turn: [924] A
Boy, I'm hoping somebody's got an ace, maybe even an ace-rag 2 pair. Checks to me again, I bet $10. Both blinds call, others fold.
River: [924A] 6
Well, my straight just got bigger. I've got the nuts. Checks to me, I put in a bet of $30 ($40 in the pot). SB grudgingly calls. Then the BB min-raises to $60. I've got about $250 left; there is about $160 in the pot. He likes his hand, and I know he'll call a raise, only question is how much.
Though it's a little risky, I go in for the kill and OBFV: all in, baby!
SB, as expected, folds. BB, who is a very good player, one who I mostly tried to avoid at the table, thinks. And thinks. And thinks. He tanks for a long time. I'm tempted to call clock, but I don't want to scare him into folding. He's stared at the board long enough that he should see the possible straight, but isn't talking about that: he's worried about a slow-played set. Which of course means he hit two pair on the turn.
Eventually, he calls. I say "the nuts" and show, he flashes me A2 for top and bottom pair.
Total win from this trip: $659. I had almost $1K in chips at the table. The last $1/$2 game broke up around 7am. I was tempted to keep playing, and sit in the $3/$5 game, but after 15 hours at the table, I didn't think my decision-making abilities would be top-notch, so I decided not to try that.
I will be taking a shot at $3/5 sometime in the coming months. I've played 3/5 before, and was comfortable playing there. I'm just trying to be more prudent about my bankroll, because in all honesty I wasn't bankrolled to play 3/5. And even my 1/2 bankroll is slightly short because I keep using it to pay for things like tuition and school books and stuff (yes, I'm paying my way for my chemical dependency professional certification with poker winnings... some may call that slightly ironic). But once I hit a certain mark I'm going to take $600 and sit at the 3/5 table (that'd be 2 max buy-ins), and see how it goes.
On a side note, Grandpa goes in for surgery Tuesday at 2:30 EST. Think good thoughts.
Sunday, June 15, 2008
poker & emotions
One thing I'm realizing is that I do not emotionally deal well with big swings. Oh sure, the up swings are wonderful, but the down swings -- I'm not good with them.
I start to question my abilities. I start to wonder whether I really am any good at this game, or if I just get lucky during winning sessions. Knowing that the majority of poker players are losing players, I wondered whether this fit me too, and if my stats for the past 9-10 months or so (only began tracking live NL play, leaving limit out right now) are just an anomaly.
About a month ago, I had an incredible poker weekend - 2 marathon poker sessions that netted me over $1K. At $1/$2. I kid you not.
But then the next 3 weekends were horrid. Awful. I ended up below where I was before memorial day.
This weekend, though, I did 2 back to back sessions Sat-Sun morning, and had to buy in 3 times to the $1/$2 game to end with a $24 profit. And the $2-$40 spread game I went to I crushed: started with $100, walked out with $460.
I hated that I spent 14 hours playing to only show a $24 profit. That almost feels like a loss...
The fact of the matter is that when I start losing, I start to feel bad about myself, and start questioning my play and my abilities. And when I'm winning, I start to wonder how this game can be so easy, and whether I should step up to $3/$5 even though I'm not properly bankrolled for that level.
I know neither of these two thoughts is correct. Yet my brain still goes there. So I guess part of me believes these thoughts. The brain lying to itself is a scary thing.
Logically, I understand 100% that you can't have winning sessions every time: nobody does except the UP and AP Super User accounts. But psychologically I get way too down on myself after losing sessions.
First step in any problem is to acknowledge the problem, so I'm part way there at least :)
I start to question my abilities. I start to wonder whether I really am any good at this game, or if I just get lucky during winning sessions. Knowing that the majority of poker players are losing players, I wondered whether this fit me too, and if my stats for the past 9-10 months or so (only began tracking live NL play, leaving limit out right now) are just an anomaly.
About a month ago, I had an incredible poker weekend - 2 marathon poker sessions that netted me over $1K. At $1/$2. I kid you not.
But then the next 3 weekends were horrid. Awful. I ended up below where I was before memorial day.
This weekend, though, I did 2 back to back sessions Sat-Sun morning, and had to buy in 3 times to the $1/$2 game to end with a $24 profit. And the $2-$40 spread game I went to I crushed: started with $100, walked out with $460.
I hated that I spent 14 hours playing to only show a $24 profit. That almost feels like a loss...
The fact of the matter is that when I start losing, I start to feel bad about myself, and start questioning my play and my abilities. And when I'm winning, I start to wonder how this game can be so easy, and whether I should step up to $3/$5 even though I'm not properly bankrolled for that level.
I know neither of these two thoughts is correct. Yet my brain still goes there. So I guess part of me believes these thoughts. The brain lying to itself is a scary thing.
Logically, I understand 100% that you can't have winning sessions every time: nobody does except the UP and AP Super User accounts. But psychologically I get way too down on myself after losing sessions.
First step in any problem is to acknowledge the problem, so I'm part way there at least :)
Saturday, May 17, 2008
FU FTP
I just got creamed by the FTP RNG.
First up: I got check/raised all-in on the flop:
Next up:
flop: Bet pot / call. Turn: bet pot / call. River: 1/2 pot, ALL IN....reluctant call:
I can almost understand the turn call: at least then he had a gutshot, but the flop?
LAST: preflop, UTG raises I RR, UTG calls. UTG check/raises all in on the flop.
I swear 1/2 the yahoos out there think a preflop raise must only mean AK, so no A and no K on the flop = golden.
I have run AMAZINGLY HORRIBLE online over the last month. My roll has been severely depleted. SEVERELY. Like the lowest it's been since my first deposit.
And don't read this post wrong: I love love LOVE all these plays by my opponents. Just the magnitude of the suckouts was kinda gross.
Oh, this was over 3 tables, over about an hour. And only the highlights. :)
First up: I got check/raised all-in on the flop:
Next up:
flop: Bet pot / call. Turn: bet pot / call. River: 1/2 pot, ALL IN....reluctant call:
I can almost understand the turn call: at least then he had a gutshot, but the flop? LAST: preflop, UTG raises I RR, UTG calls. UTG check/raises all in on the flop.
I swear 1/2 the yahoos out there think a preflop raise must only mean AK, so no A and no K on the flop = golden.
I have run AMAZINGLY HORRIBLE online over the last month. My roll has been severely depleted. SEVERELY. Like the lowest it's been since my first deposit.
And don't read this post wrong: I love love LOVE all these plays by my opponents. Just the magnitude of the suckouts was kinda gross.
Oh, this was over 3 tables, over about an hour. And only the highlights. :)
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
I think maybe I'm not that good
I lost a bunch online this weekend. A couple years back I had made a pledge to never play on Sundays - for whatever reason, I took more horrible beats on Sundays than any other days. I played super-early Sunday morning (5am) and did great, but between 4 & 8pm over a couple sessions I dropped about 5 buy ins.
Unfortunately, only 2 of those were gross beats; the other 3 I pretty much paid off way too many winners. I shoulda stopped playing way before I did. Discipline is lacking; I see myself playing poorly and think I can change it and get better. I haven't been able to much lately. Tilt, I think this is referred to as. :)
Roll isn't near as healthy as I'd like, so I'm in rebuild mode. Not in danger of busting, but if I run like that too much I will be. For a little while I won't be ashamed of small hit and runs. I'm also focusing on fundamentals: will likely drop the 2nd table, and play more conservatively.
This hand was a dream, though - AA in the BB, 2 limpers called my raise. Then... ah, hell, see for yourself:
Flop gets checked around. Turn, "Lost with AK" shoves. Guess he wanted to chase out flush draws (too late!). I think of coming over the top, but I'm hoping button has a flush so I just call, as does the button. I shove the river, and get called. Awesome.
That was a $25 pot. I took the $17 profit (I bought in for $8), and left. I'm roll building, and until I can move back up to dime/quarter, I'm going by the Ferguson Challenge rule that if the money in front of me is 10% or more of my roll, I have to leave when the blinds come around. And, unfortunately, $25 is more than 10% of my roll, so I folded a few crap hands and left when the bb came back.
Unfortunately, only 2 of those were gross beats; the other 3 I pretty much paid off way too many winners. I shoulda stopped playing way before I did. Discipline is lacking; I see myself playing poorly and think I can change it and get better. I haven't been able to much lately. Tilt, I think this is referred to as. :)
Roll isn't near as healthy as I'd like, so I'm in rebuild mode. Not in danger of busting, but if I run like that too much I will be. For a little while I won't be ashamed of small hit and runs. I'm also focusing on fundamentals: will likely drop the 2nd table, and play more conservatively.
This hand was a dream, though - AA in the BB, 2 limpers called my raise. Then... ah, hell, see for yourself:
Flop gets checked around. Turn, "Lost with AK" shoves. Guess he wanted to chase out flush draws (too late!). I think of coming over the top, but I'm hoping button has a flush so I just call, as does the button. I shove the river, and get called. Awesome.
That was a $25 pot. I took the $17 profit (I bought in for $8), and left. I'm roll building, and until I can move back up to dime/quarter, I'm going by the Ferguson Challenge rule that if the money in front of me is 10% or more of my roll, I have to leave when the blinds come around. And, unfortunately, $25 is more than 10% of my roll, so I folded a few crap hands and left when the bb came back.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Guess I shouldn't feel too bad.
So I'm down 20 buy-ins. Big deal so far. Looking at Chris Ferguson's bankroll, he dropped over $16K in 10 days.
Just variance. Only not as big as Chris's!
Just variance. Only not as big as Chris's!
Sunday, January 20, 2008
want to, but can't
It's late, it's my prime playing time, but I can't. Well, I physically could, but I won't. Why?
SERIOUS life tilt. And playing on tilt is -EV; playing on THIS emotional tilt could be putting my roll in danger. Seriously.
Sure, it'd be fun to go be an aggressive bull trying to push the table around. I also know better: I'm HIGHLY emotional right now, and staying away from the tables is the most +EV thing I can do right now.
Sad thing is I've got so much coffee going through my veins that I'm going to be up for hours; it's a damn shame, as these are historically my biggest money winning hours (after midnight on the weekends).
What to do? Damned if I know...
SERIOUS life tilt. And playing on tilt is -EV; playing on THIS emotional tilt could be putting my roll in danger. Seriously.
Sure, it'd be fun to go be an aggressive bull trying to push the table around. I also know better: I'm HIGHLY emotional right now, and staying away from the tables is the most +EV thing I can do right now.
Sad thing is I've got so much coffee going through my veins that I'm going to be up for hours; it's a damn shame, as these are historically my biggest money winning hours (after midnight on the weekends).
What to do? Damned if I know...
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
limits, & discipline
So I broke a bit of a cardinal rule the other night: I played a limit above what my bankroll can safely withstand. I didn't go all Rounders and put my whole stake at the table or anything silly. I only played at $0.10/$0.25. My bankroll is just way too light to sustain any swings at this level, and I knew that if I busted here that I would have to permanently banish myself from this limit until I've built back up.
Good news: a) I didn't bust, and b) I ended about $10 up.
Bad news: I played like a pussy.
Due only to my own idiocy as I have been on a big downswing, I sat at a $25 NL table the other night, with a $20 buy in. I justified this as "OK" since I typically 2-table at $10NL, so I have the same amount on the line (and no, in a much more lucid frame of mind I don't buy this!). It's really amazing the difference in play at these two levels, and if anything I think that $25NL may even be easier to beat.
Why? Because the players at $25 NL seem to "know a little bit" about what they're doing, which if you use to your advantage can let you steal pots you don't even have the right to be in in the first place.
I'm torn over this, though. My online bankroll is too light to safely play there right now, BUT I enjoy playing there much more than $10NL. It's a more interesting game, whereas $10NL feels more like robot-poker.
I've got to have discipline, though, or else my online roll will be at a great risk.
Good news: a) I didn't bust, and b) I ended about $10 up.
Bad news: I played like a pussy.
Due only to my own idiocy as I have been on a big downswing, I sat at a $25 NL table the other night, with a $20 buy in. I justified this as "OK" since I typically 2-table at $10NL, so I have the same amount on the line (and no, in a much more lucid frame of mind I don't buy this!). It's really amazing the difference in play at these two levels, and if anything I think that $25NL may even be easier to beat.
Why? Because the players at $25 NL seem to "know a little bit" about what they're doing, which if you use to your advantage can let you steal pots you don't even have the right to be in in the first place.
I'm torn over this, though. My online bankroll is too light to safely play there right now, BUT I enjoy playing there much more than $10NL. It's a more interesting game, whereas $10NL feels more like robot-poker.
I've got to have discipline, though, or else my online roll will be at a great risk.
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