aw crap

Grandpa's not doin' well. Been having stomache pains for months, and the idiot doctors couldn't find anything wrong. After MONTHS of this, yesterday he finally went to the Cleveland Clinic, where they examined him and found a tumor/mass on the pancreas, which is blocking the pancreatic vein.

Surgery is likely not an option due to his age.

Crap.

FU FTP

I just got creamed by the FTP RNG.

First up: I got check/raised all-in on the flop:



Next up:
flop: Bet pot / call. Turn: bet pot / call. River: 1/2 pot, ALL IN....reluctant call:

I can almost understand the turn call: at least then he had a gutshot, but the flop?


LAST: preflop, UTG raises I RR, UTG calls. UTG check/raises all in on the flop.


I swear 1/2 the yahoos out there think a preflop raise must only mean AK, so no A and no K on the flop = golden.

I have run AMAZINGLY HORRIBLE online over the last month. My roll has been severely depleted. SEVERELY. Like the lowest it's been since my first deposit.

And don't read this post wrong: I love love LOVE all these plays by my opponents. Just the magnitude of the suckouts was kinda gross.

Oh, this was over 3 tables, over about an hour. And only the highlights. :)

Hand of the day

at the table for 15 hands, played 1. 2 limpers, I'm on the button with KK, raise to $0.50, UTG calls. FLOP: 7 9 3 rainbow.

UTG bets pot, I min-raise, UTG calls.
TURN: 6
UTG shoves.

Yea, I'm dreading a set, but there are 2 spades now, so this could be 2 spades shoving. I make a crying call. Look at this hand:


How do you call the preflop raise? And how the flop re-raise?

Again - please, call me every single time there, please!

Poker Gods, why hath you forsaken me?

Unsure whether I have changed to playing like crap, or I'm just on a horrible run. My gut tells me it's a bit of both, as being down roughly 20 buy-ins over 3 weeks is pretty crappy. Sure, I've taken my share of suck-outs, but still.... I need to analyze my game from Oct-Dec to find the strong points, and compare that to Dec-now. Basically, I'm right back where I started back in October, so from a cash standpoint, no harm/no foul.

Horrible run? Horrible play? Dunno...

Friends are playing a teeny poker game Friday night: dealer's choice, nickle-ante, $0.10/$0.25 limit / 3-raise-max. Should be fun if nothing else; I hope to play the strangest combination of starters I can think up. Also hoping I can talk these guys into a NL game the next time. We'll see.

Hoping to hit Tulalip on Saturday - planning on getting there a bit earlier than usual and sitting at $1/$2 (instead of $3/$5). I may play a sit n go or 2 online; I played one turbo HU the other night and dominated. I think I need to step away from the cash tables for a spell.

Tulalip - Two Thursday hands

Tulalip $3/$5

I've folded for 3 orbits, and observed insanely loose-passive play from most of the table, with one LAGGY raising and C-betting all but maybe one pot he's been in. He's been picking up a lot of dead money without having to show any cards. I'm UTG with KK. Awesome.

I raise to $20
Folds to Laggy in MP who calls, others fold. Pot = $48

FLOP: 6s 4c 10d
I check, hoping laggy will c-bet (like he has all but maybe 2 pots he's been in)
Laggy checks.

TURN: [6s 4c 10d] 3d
I bet $40
Laggy calls.
This looks like it could be 5-7, and I thought about this. However, I'm convinced he would have bet the flop with an OESD. (and yes, I believe 5-7 could easily have been in his range).

RIVER: [6s 4c 10d 3d] 5h
I check.
Laggy bets $50
I reluctantly call, almost certain I'm beat.

Laggy shows Ad 7h for the straight. First off, he called 4xs BB bet from an UTG player who had yet to play a hand in 45 minutes. Secondly, he made that call with A7o! FINALLY, that's right, he called $40 on the turn with a gut-shot; with the over that gave him 7 outs. Awesome call man, awesome call.

Why did I make this call when I was almost sure I was beat? He could have played AK the same way; he also could have believed I had AK, and once I checked the river it gave him the green light to make a play.

Nice thing about this evening for him: he made some awful calls on draws that hit; he's going to believe he played well, and play like that the next time too. And hopefully I'll have the privilege of sitting at his table in the future.

--------------------
--------------------

2 hours later, I'm stuck, and my stack has been whittled down to ~$100. A few new players just came to the table. My table image of über-tight won't matter at all now, and the short stack makes it look like I'm either playing like crap or am super unlucky.

MP raises to $15; MP+1 calls.
I call on the button with Ac Qs.

FLOP: 9c As 5s
MP bets $30, MP+1 folds
I push for $85 more; MP insta-calls.

Board: 9c As 5s 10c 3d

MP shows Ah 10d for 2 pair.

Awesome call with top pair/OK kicker. I can't see making that call on the flop. I was so glad he did, though - I'd love to be called in that spot ever time, with the dude chasing a 3-outer. Funny thing too, when we flipped our cards over he seemed genuinely surprised that I had him out-kicked.

Cold-decks suck.

DQB squared!!

The THRILL of VICTORY:




....and the AGONY of defeat:



Must say, though, that I loved the guy on the top hand (my flopped quads) shoved on the turn. I'm glad that I at least waited until I had a boat (my QQ hand) to shove! Actually, I checked the turn and OBFV on the river -- ooops!

After he checked the turn, I even momentarily thought "he could have quads" and for the slightest of split seconds contemplated smooth-calling his small value-bet-sized river bet. I'm glad I didn't though; that's definitely a situation I don't mind busting out in.

Awesome time for 2 pair

Keep the beats coming

*** HOLE CARDS ***
gsw61515 raises to $0.30 with [Ac Jc]
REYN14 calls $0.30
BuffBills044 calls $0.25

*** FLOP *** [5d As Js]
BuffBills044 checks
gsw61515 checks (to induce a bet)
REYN14 bets $1
BuffBills044 folds
gsw61515 raises to $3
REYN14 calls $2, and is all in
gsw61515 shows [Ac Jc]
REYN14 shows [Ad Qd] <-- nice setup

*** TURN *** [5d As Js] [Ah]

*** RIVER *** [5d As Js Ah] [Qh] <-- I got 2-outered!!!
gsw61515 shows a full house, Aces full of Jacks
REYN14 shows a full house, Aces full of Queens <-- I LOVE boat-over-boat!

sink or swim

Sure, it's a short down swing. It just sucks. I lost a couple buy-ins at $10NL last night. Again, I don't feel like I'm playing poorly, I just...well... I'm bleeding money. I think perhaps I tightened up too much: at $10NL I had good success when I was seeing 35% of the flops; I tightened up a bit at $25NL and see 25-30%, and thought if I carried that trend at the lower level that my win rate would go up.

Two things I both love and hate at $10NL: 1. If someone holds 63o on a 3KQJ9r board, there's a good chance they won't be able to fold (how do you call half-pot and 3/4 pot bets with a 3 on that board?!); AND2. Shoving $6 (read: 60 bb's) or more preflop 10 times in a row.

The first one is usually +EV, as when you have A10 or J10 or such you get paid off. I make plays for pots on occasion too, and boards like that are often perfect for it. The times you bluff at it with say 67s and get called by the monsterous 63o is laughably annoying.

The second one is, for me, just a little annoying and an exercise in patience. When I'm not getting a good price I typically won't call here without KK or AA. Last night a shove-monkey took a bad beat and shoved 13 hands in a row. He's in MP, I'm immediately to his left with QQ. After 13 shoves I figured there's a good chance QQ is good here. Well, he tables KK, and flops a K to boot.

Awesome.

I know one thing I should have done, but did not: shortly after this beat, I noticed my emotions were on a roller coaster. At that point, I should have shut down FTP and watched one of the Lost Season 3 DVD special features (when my emotions are riled it affects my play - yes, even at $10NL). Instead, I tried to play through, and tightened up too much I think. While some people spew when they tilt, I clamp down. Both are -EV.

To end the night, I decided to really torture myself and played some RAZZ. I actually made up some of my losses (which is why I was down only 2, and not 3, buy ins). So tonight if I play I'll either be at Razz or possibly even the teeny SNG's - it's been months since I was in one of those.

Though if I stick to my best game (NLHE) I've got a better chance to curtail the downswing. Yea, I'm down over $120 since Friday. Now I see why playing $25NL too light is dangerous; though an even worse decision was to wait too long to move down.

Coolers

Remember the 22 boat over boat hand from my last post? Check this out:


What? Not enough coolers yet? OK then:


That's right - 3 times in 2 nights; 3 times in approx 700 hands, FLOPPED sets over sets. What are the odds? No, seriously, what are the odds? Does anyone know how to figure that out?

And just for kicks, here's some RNG-fun:

This is my 2nd hand at each of these tables, too...







fwiw I won the hand on the left...







This one I folded the one on the left as the one on the right was being dealt.







In a previous post I mentioned that there are 169 combinations of hands (ignoring suits). The odds of getting the same hand twice, then, is 1 in 169 while playing at one table; I don't know how to figure out what the odds are of seeing the exact same hand dealt at the exact same time over multiple tables.

Now, I'm FAR from saying FTP is "rigged" or fixed or anything - if I thought that I'd take my money and run. These instances in no way effect the play or the outcome, so it's not strategically important.

What I am suggesting, though, is that there is something funky with their RNG - either they're taking seed info based on something not randomized enough, or... something... I've seen it in the past, I've read in other blogs about it, and just the fact that I'm able to regularly capture multiple instances in the course of an hour or 2 of playing is quite compelling evidence.

interesting graphics

This is what my ROI% graph looked like on Sharkscope about two months ago. Looking at this told me that I should steer clear of the $5 games, as those were my weakest. I hadn't been playing many $10 games at that point, so those results really reflected last summer/fall when I was concentrating mostly on $10 games.

A few months ago, I was playing the $2 18-person games, and cashing in those regularly. I didn't like all that work for such little reward, so I moved to the $5 18-person games, about a month or so ago. Here's what my ROI% graph looks like today:


...see any difference? ;)

I'd attribute that to playing better, and playing the 18-seaters, where there's a bigger prize pool (and, thus, better ROI when cashing). IMHO they seem easier than the 9-seaters (I've become unfond of the 6-seaters), and typically only take a little bit longer than a 9-seater. I've stepped up to the $10 ones a couple times, but just got smacked around (I don't attribute that to better players, I was just very card dead the 3 I've tried).

I've run kinda bad lately. Well, runnin' bad, and playing poorly. Thankfully my roll hasn't suffered much, as the past 3 nights I've made up most of what I've lost in sit and go / tourny buy-ins by playing .25/.50 limit HU / 3-way. I don't have a huge online roll by any means (though my riverchaser's win from a few weeks back has been super-cool cushion); I'm down $30 from after my RPT win, which isn't great, but the way I've been playing in tournys the past few days it could be a lot worse. Thank god for the fish playing HU limit! Wonder if I should move to .50/1... I think after my next STT win or decent MTT cash I'll give it a whirl.

...the more I think about it, the more excited I get about hitting the Tulalip Casino next weekend!

Lunacy

Wanna see what a bad call looks like?



I raised preflop, jl555 (whom I played HU in the last Riverchaser's tourny) pushed. I'm thinkin' it could be a resteal with air or suited connectors or something... so... *sigh* I called. Ace-freakin-10 sooooted.

2 hands later, I get A10o UTG, SO low in chips I need to get it in there with pretty much ATC, so I shoved... 44 beat me.

I played well -- very well, after the first 20 minutes where I was pretty weak. Granted I was pretty much card-dead for most of the game, and I really think of all the pots I won I was only certain I had the best hand once; every other hand I won by exploiting my (hopefully) tight image, and making re-raises of smallish bets on scary boards.

Ace-freakin'-10. What was I thinking?! AK - OK, fine - at that point with my chips getting a bit low anyway, I'd have to call. AQ - probably there too. But A10?!!

Sometimes I just overthink, and implode. And since I'm still very much a beginner at this game, overthinking is bad: most often, the most obvious play is the right play. Here, the most obvious play was to fold and wait for a better opportunity. I made a poor decision that busted me.

Oh, well - live and learn.

Timing is off

I think every stop and go I tried today had poor timing. Conversely, those who happened to employ the stop and go against me, had impeccable timing.

I love poker :)

Holy Cold Deck, Batman!

After the past week, slowly adding over $100 to my online roll at the lowest of low limits (.25/.50), I just logged a -$48.90, 450-hand session. I ended up losing more than 1/2 of that on one .50/1 limit table. There was a guy playing every hand...literally every hand... and showed down so many hands that held up it was sick (including a 6-2 suited that he played capped preflop, capped flop, and caught runner-runner clubs to crack my aces!).

Out of all the straight draws I had over that many hands, I hit one. ONE. I mean - I did flop a couple, too, which got no action on my bets. About 5 times I had OESD + a flush draw, and didn't hit any of it!

I get emotional easily. It's not even the bad beats, it's the assholes who tell me not to call his raises with "crap," calling my 89soooted crap vs his ace-rag soooted (again, pair PLUS OESD on the flop, and he rivered - rivered - the flush, calling all of my raises 'till the river with nothing but a diamond draw). He started to lecture me as to how crappy a hand that is; and then...

You know what? It doesn't freakin' matter. He plays any suited ace, and any suited king, and likes playing them. I like to play suited connectors and suited gappers, and even raise with them. That's the way I play, and that's cool. I think I'll have better results in the long run by playing those hands strongly, in position, and tossing my soooted ace-rags (maybe the occasional one to mix-it-up, etc)...

I let myself get bothered by this dude enough that I started looking for tables without him (found a couple) sitting, and played there (after, of course, muting the dick). I just gotta let that shit roll. Or turn off chat.

I think next round I turn off chat.

And I'll play only two tables. Or maybe one .50/1, and play tight. Whatever. I need to eat some ice cream now though. And chill out a little more.