Villain: $250. Been at the table about 30 minutes; don't think she's folded a hand preflop yet. She appears to be not very experienced (bet sizes, chip/card handling, general demeanor, etc), very very passive.
MP: $350. Very, very aggressive. Usually a $3/$5 player.
Hero: $700. Typical playing for me (LAG). Not happy MP is here, but happy Villain (and her friend) is.
MP raises to $10. Hero calls with 2c 2s. Villain calls.
POT: $30
FLOP: 256 rainbow.
Villain bets $15. MP raises to $40. I think about raising, but I want Villain to come in, so I just call. Villain calls.
POT: $150
TURN: [256] 9
Villain bets $40. MP folds. I push. Villain thinks for a half a minute, then calls.
POT: $550
River: [2569] J
Hero shows a set of 2's. Villain shows a set of 6's.
I've rarely folded sets on rainbow boards. There is a possible straight, sure, but I really don't think she's leading out on a draw. The more I think about this, though, the more obvious this should have been that I was way behind. It was obvious to the entire table just how aggressive MP is, and she wasn't the least bit afraid to bet right into him twice...I don't see what else this besides 55 or 66. Slight possibility of an over-pair, but I could only see this being AA with her leading out twice (especially twice into a raiser and a caller).
If I had stopped and taken a minute or two to replay the hand, to figure out what she would lead out into two aggressive players, I would have pinpointed that hand to 55 or 66, and saved myself some money. Instead, because I had seen her show QQ after leading into a rag flop, I simply assumed that must be what it was again.
Showing posts with label Hand Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hand Analysis. Show all posts
Monday, September 15, 2008
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Should've stacked him
Tulalip $1/$3.
UTG - new player, won first three hands he's played (this is his 4th), $300
HERO (OTB): Playing tighter than usual, table is a little too crazy to play super-lag, $400
UTG raises to $10. Folds to me, and I call with 8d 8c. SB calls.
FLOP: Jh 2h Jd
SB checks. UTG bets $20. I just don't think he's on a jack, and I can represent a flush if a heart falls, so I call. SB folds. Pot: $70.
TURN: [Jh 2h Jd] 8s
Miracle card. UTG bets $40. I take a little time, and smooth-call. Pot: $150
RIVER: [Jh 2h Jd 8s] Qd
UTG: Checks. I take some time, and bet $125. UTG SNAP-calls. I turn over the boat, and he mucks.
Moral of the story: Raise the turn. If UTG really has a jack, he's going to call most any raise. If he doesn't, then he won't put any more money in on the river anyway. If I made a smallish raise to $100 on the turn, he'd likely have called anyway, then the pot would be the right size for me to stick the rest in on the river, which he likely would have called. He likely had AJ there.
I missed out on about $100 by getting fancy and slow-playing my boat. I almost never slow-play, so I'm not sure what I was thinking.
UTG - new player, won first three hands he's played (this is his 4th), $300
HERO (OTB): Playing tighter than usual, table is a little too crazy to play super-lag, $400
UTG raises to $10. Folds to me, and I call with 8d 8c. SB calls.
FLOP: Jh 2h Jd
SB checks. UTG bets $20. I just don't think he's on a jack, and I can represent a flush if a heart falls, so I call. SB folds. Pot: $70.
TURN: [Jh 2h Jd] 8s
Miracle card. UTG bets $40. I take a little time, and smooth-call. Pot: $150
RIVER: [Jh 2h Jd 8s] Qd
UTG: Checks. I take some time, and bet $125. UTG SNAP-calls. I turn over the boat, and he mucks.
Moral of the story: Raise the turn. If UTG really has a jack, he's going to call most any raise. If he doesn't, then he won't put any more money in on the river anyway. If I made a smallish raise to $100 on the turn, he'd likely have called anyway, then the pot would be the right size for me to stick the rest in on the river, which he likely would have called. He likely had AJ there.
I missed out on about $100 by getting fancy and slow-playing my boat. I almost never slow-play, so I'm not sure what I was thinking.
Monday, August 25, 2008
Follow your read
One thing I've been working on is following my read, even when I can't say what my read is based on. I've played a lot of cash game poker over the past 3 months - at least once / week, and most every session was at least 10 hours (most closer to 12-15 hours). I've gotten a lot better in general, and more specifically I've gotten much better at following my reads.
Game: private home-game, 6-handed $0.50/$0.50 NLHE, $100-$200 buy-in. We've got over $1,000 on the table. Deep stack poker is awesome. Play has been very aggressive.
SB: $400, possibly the most aggressive player at the table. This is the first time I've played with him (the rest of the table I've played with twice before).
Me OTB: $280. I've been picking my spots carefully, made some good plays that worked, made some good plays that were picked-off... having a great time, too.
CO limps in, I limp with Q2o. I did this because: a) I'm on the button, and I play almost anything 6-handed on the button with no raise, and b) there's a running joke on this email discussion list we're all on that claims Q2o to be the nuts. SB raises to $2.50, CO folds, I call.
FLOP: 929 rainbow.
SB bets $6. I call. Why? Something in his mannerism, or the way he tossed his chips, or something else, tells me he doesn't have anything. I consider raising, but this player loves to 3-bet, so I just call and hope to get to a showdown.
TURN: [929] 7x
SB bets $15. I call.
RIVER: [9297] Jx
SB bets $35. I take some time, count my chips, take a look at the SB, count the $35 out, take a look at the small blind. I just don't think he's got anything. My motto lately has been to pick my spots, and if I was following that I'd have folded preflop, or at least on the flop. But I also need to follow my reads, and if I think I've got the best hand I'm at least calling.
So I do call. SB says "Nice call. Ace high." I turn over Q2 and collect a $148 pot with a pair of ducks.
Am I writing this to brag? Only partly ;)
My point is if you have a read, follow it. Or, more specifically, if I have a read, I'm following it. I often cannot put my finger on what it is that gives me the read I have, so I guess that's the next step. But there are times when I'm playing where I get an almost overwhelmingly strong sense of exactly what's going on in the hand. That's what happened here.
It's a feeling I can't describe, but it just kind of 'makes sense,' in a similar way that great music just 'sounds good.'
Game: private home-game, 6-handed $0.50/$0.50 NLHE, $100-$200 buy-in. We've got over $1,000 on the table. Deep stack poker is awesome. Play has been very aggressive.
SB: $400, possibly the most aggressive player at the table. This is the first time I've played with him (the rest of the table I've played with twice before).
Me OTB: $280. I've been picking my spots carefully, made some good plays that worked, made some good plays that were picked-off... having a great time, too.
CO limps in, I limp with Q2o. I did this because: a) I'm on the button, and I play almost anything 6-handed on the button with no raise, and b) there's a running joke on this email discussion list we're all on that claims Q2o to be the nuts. SB raises to $2.50, CO folds, I call.
FLOP: 929 rainbow.
SB bets $6. I call. Why? Something in his mannerism, or the way he tossed his chips, or something else, tells me he doesn't have anything. I consider raising, but this player loves to 3-bet, so I just call and hope to get to a showdown.
TURN: [929] 7x
SB bets $15. I call.
RIVER: [9297] Jx
SB bets $35. I take some time, count my chips, take a look at the SB, count the $35 out, take a look at the small blind. I just don't think he's got anything. My motto lately has been to pick my spots, and if I was following that I'd have folded preflop, or at least on the flop. But I also need to follow my reads, and if I think I've got the best hand I'm at least calling.
So I do call. SB says "Nice call. Ace high." I turn over Q2 and collect a $148 pot with a pair of ducks.
Am I writing this to brag? Only partly ;)
My point is if you have a read, follow it. Or, more specifically, if I have a read, I'm following it. I often cannot put my finger on what it is that gives me the read I have, so I guess that's the next step. But there are times when I'm playing where I get an almost overwhelmingly strong sense of exactly what's going on in the hand. That's what happened here.
It's a feeling I can't describe, but it just kind of 'makes sense,' in a similar way that great music just 'sounds good.'
Sunday, August 10, 2008
The stuff that dreams are made of
Tulalip $1/$3
Hero: MP, $900. Playing aggressively, making moves, pushing the table around. Very much a LAG image. Even though when the big pots come up I almost always have the goods, people continue to think I'm just making moves on them.
Cut-Off: 1st time playing poker in a casino. Luck-boxed into a few medium-size pots. $240 (up from $100).
BB: Young kid. No read. Not involved in more than a couple pots over the last hour or so. Casual player. $180.
UTG raises to $12. I look down at 2 black aces, and I bump it to $35. CO calls. BB takes a few seconds, and announces all-in. Folds to me. It's spread-limit, so I know the betting is capped, but I still announce "All-In." Dealer tells me it's capped, so I say I call and am all-in blind before the flop. CO calls. Dealer pulls money in, and I put out $200 before the flop, CO pushes his chips into the pot.
I have no idea what the flop turn or river were. Nobody improved.
BB showed pocket deuces (?!); CO shows AhQd (?!?!).
Insanity. $180 with 22. $240 with AQ0. I love this game!!!
Hero: MP, $900. Playing aggressively, making moves, pushing the table around. Very much a LAG image. Even though when the big pots come up I almost always have the goods, people continue to think I'm just making moves on them.
Cut-Off: 1st time playing poker in a casino. Luck-boxed into a few medium-size pots. $240 (up from $100).
BB: Young kid. No read. Not involved in more than a couple pots over the last hour or so. Casual player. $180.
UTG raises to $12. I look down at 2 black aces, and I bump it to $35. CO calls. BB takes a few seconds, and announces all-in. Folds to me. It's spread-limit, so I know the betting is capped, but I still announce "All-In." Dealer tells me it's capped, so I say I call and am all-in blind before the flop. CO calls. Dealer pulls money in, and I put out $200 before the flop, CO pushes his chips into the pot.
I have no idea what the flop turn or river were. Nobody improved.
BB showed pocket deuces (?!); CO shows AhQd (?!?!).
Insanity. $180 with 22. $240 with AQ0. I love this game!!!
Saturday, July 19, 2008
Playing big pots
I'm addicted to Live at the Bike, a webcast of cash games at the Bicycle Casino (they don't webcast anymore, but you can subscribe and watch the archives here), and just yesterday I was watching a show with Barry Greenstein doing commentary.
He was talking about the fact that his aim when playing no limit, is to play for big pots. "Duh" I guess you could say, but it helped me plug a little leak. I realized I was trying to win too many of the smaller pots, which meant I was at times losing too many chips with marginal hands. Don't get me wrong, I'm still playing some of the smaller pots, and I'll take stabs at pots when I don't think anyone's connected. But this last session, instead of 2 or 3 barrelling, I'd give up once I'm called if I don't improve.
I'm still getting in there with hands that can hit hard, and, quite honestly, hope to get lucky. Cases in point:
Hand 1:
After a couple limpers, I limp on the button with Ac 6c. With this hand, I'm not looking to hit top pair; I want something like 2 pair or, obviously, flushes or flush draws. The BB, a young woman I've played with a number of times, raises it up to $8. The cut off calls, and they both have enough money behind for me to take a chance with this hand, so I call too.
FLOP: Ad 6h 2h
BB bets $15. CO calls. I've got top 2 pair, so I raise it to $50, and both call. I can put one of them on a decent ace, and the other one on a likely heart flush draw.
TURN: [Ad 6h 2h] 6d
Well, I don't care if the flush gets there now, and it's likely the BB is happy with her 2 pair with a good kicker, so it's time to bet. The pot is almost $150, and I've got about $100 left, so when they check it to me, I just stick it all in there and hope they've got something they can go with.
BB calls, and the CO calls!
BB shows AJo, CO calls Ah 9h, so both are drawing dead. I don't remember the river, and I collect a pot over $350.
Hand 2:
Very early in the session, and I've been gambooling it up a bit to try to build my stack. I've gone up to $150 and now down to about $85.
I limp in with 7d8d UTG. There were a couple limpers, then the button bumps it up to $10. It's $8 more for me to call; it's a close-call whether it's worth taking a long-shot here (I'd like to have a little more in my stack for this to be over-all profitable, but it's early in the night and I'm willing to take some more chances to try to build a stack to play with). I call, hoping for a straight draw or flush draw.
FLOP: 7s 7c 2c
One of the few times I will check raise is right here. If I was holding two 7's, and flopped a set, I'd lead out. One in hand and 2 on the board I'm more apt to check-raise OOP. [edit: if stacks were deeper, I'd lead out, but this game is rarely very deep stacked so the check-raise is my favorite move here]
I check. Button bets out $35 (gross overbet to chase out a flush draw). I go all in for an additional $50. He takes some time, asks if I'm on a club draw, then calls with TT. Turn and river blank out, and I double through, while hearing from him how horrible my preflop call was.
I'm convinced I got the call here because I've gone all-in on draws, one that hit, and one that didn't get called but I showed. I want my opponents to think I'll put them to the test for their stack whenever they're in a pot with me (and I don't always have to have a hand to do it). My range is really wide, too, so there's a ton of flops that will connect with me big time.
Hand 3:
UTG raises to $6. Folds to button who raises to $16. I'm in the SB with AsQs; I'd rather not see a flop so decide to try to take it down here, and re-raise to $35. UTG folds, button calls.
His call and no raise here, I believe, means he's got AK or AQ. I could get into trouble here, but with no queen on the flop I'll have to bet to win.
FLOP: Js Jc 2d
If he's got AA/KK/QQ I'm screwed. I HIGHLY doubt he called the reraise with AJ/KJ. I'm sticking with my original read that he's on AK. Rainbow flop means no flush draw.
I go all in (approx $100). Button hems and haws a bunch, then folds AcKc face up. "Good fold," I said, "I definitely did not want to see an ace or a king." He asked what I had and I told him queens, but mucked my hand. The entire table seemed to believe me (I don't know why!).
This was one of the few times playing out of position can earn you the pot: if you go with your read, and you know the guy can't call an all-in here, you stick the chips in and win the pot.
He was talking about the fact that his aim when playing no limit, is to play for big pots. "Duh" I guess you could say, but it helped me plug a little leak. I realized I was trying to win too many of the smaller pots, which meant I was at times losing too many chips with marginal hands. Don't get me wrong, I'm still playing some of the smaller pots, and I'll take stabs at pots when I don't think anyone's connected. But this last session, instead of 2 or 3 barrelling, I'd give up once I'm called if I don't improve.
I'm still getting in there with hands that can hit hard, and, quite honestly, hope to get lucky. Cases in point:
Hand 1:
After a couple limpers, I limp on the button with Ac 6c. With this hand, I'm not looking to hit top pair; I want something like 2 pair or, obviously, flushes or flush draws. The BB, a young woman I've played with a number of times, raises it up to $8. The cut off calls, and they both have enough money behind for me to take a chance with this hand, so I call too.
FLOP: Ad 6h 2h
BB bets $15. CO calls. I've got top 2 pair, so I raise it to $50, and both call. I can put one of them on a decent ace, and the other one on a likely heart flush draw.
TURN: [Ad 6h 2h] 6d
Well, I don't care if the flush gets there now, and it's likely the BB is happy with her 2 pair with a good kicker, so it's time to bet. The pot is almost $150, and I've got about $100 left, so when they check it to me, I just stick it all in there and hope they've got something they can go with.
BB calls, and the CO calls!
BB shows AJo, CO calls Ah 9h, so both are drawing dead. I don't remember the river, and I collect a pot over $350.
Hand 2:
Very early in the session, and I've been gambooling it up a bit to try to build my stack. I've gone up to $150 and now down to about $85.
I limp in with 7d8d UTG. There were a couple limpers, then the button bumps it up to $10. It's $8 more for me to call; it's a close-call whether it's worth taking a long-shot here (I'd like to have a little more in my stack for this to be over-all profitable, but it's early in the night and I'm willing to take some more chances to try to build a stack to play with). I call, hoping for a straight draw or flush draw.
FLOP: 7s 7c 2c
One of the few times I will check raise is right here. If I was holding two 7's, and flopped a set, I'd lead out. One in hand and 2 on the board I'm more apt to check-raise OOP. [edit: if stacks were deeper, I'd lead out, but this game is rarely very deep stacked so the check-raise is my favorite move here]
I check. Button bets out $35 (gross overbet to chase out a flush draw). I go all in for an additional $50. He takes some time, asks if I'm on a club draw, then calls with TT. Turn and river blank out, and I double through, while hearing from him how horrible my preflop call was.
I'm convinced I got the call here because I've gone all-in on draws, one that hit, and one that didn't get called but I showed. I want my opponents to think I'll put them to the test for their stack whenever they're in a pot with me (and I don't always have to have a hand to do it). My range is really wide, too, so there's a ton of flops that will connect with me big time.
Hand 3:
UTG raises to $6. Folds to button who raises to $16. I'm in the SB with AsQs; I'd rather not see a flop so decide to try to take it down here, and re-raise to $35. UTG folds, button calls.
His call and no raise here, I believe, means he's got AK or AQ. I could get into trouble here, but with no queen on the flop I'll have to bet to win.
FLOP: Js Jc 2d
If he's got AA/KK/QQ I'm screwed. I HIGHLY doubt he called the reraise with AJ/KJ. I'm sticking with my original read that he's on AK. Rainbow flop means no flush draw.
I go all in (approx $100). Button hems and haws a bunch, then folds AcKc face up. "Good fold," I said, "I definitely did not want to see an ace or a king." He asked what I had and I told him queens, but mucked my hand. The entire table seemed to believe me (I don't know why!).
This was one of the few times playing out of position can earn you the pot: if you go with your read, and you know the guy can't call an all-in here, you stick the chips in and win the pot.
Monday, May 19, 2008
Poker goal / hand analysis:
Aggressive deep stack 6-handed home game. $0.50/$0.50 blinds, $100-200 buy in.
UTG: big stack ($300), very aggressive player. Apart from big hands, he has not had to show down many. Smart player.
SB: $130. Tight, careful player. Less aggressive than the other 5, but the only big re-raise he's put in were holding the nuts.
Hero on button: $150; tricky, slightly unorthodox image; winners I've recently shown down vary from 94o to flopped boats, turned flushes; successful bluffs I've shown down range from 2 overs to nothing near the board. I have a good feel for the risk-tolerance of the rest of the table; my steal-raises and re-raises have been spot-on all night, as have my value bets. I was way on top of my game: not to toot my own horn too much, but it was some of the best poker I've played in a while.
FLOP: 9c Th Qh
SB bets $12; UTG instacalls. HERO announces raise; calls the $12, considers the pot, and raises $50. SB stares down HERO for a good 2 minutes. SB announces All In. UTG shows his cards to his neighbor and says "can you believe I have to throw this away?"
I ask for a count, it's $100 even to call.
I can't put him on KJ or J8: he's WAAAYYY too tight to call what he perceived to be a preflop overraise with these. It's possible he has AK/AQ/TT/99/QQ/KK/AA. Outside of these hands, all of which are ahead of me, I can't figure anything else out.
I need an 8 or a K for the probable nuts. That's 8 outs, twice. ~32% to the winner. Slight chance an A will give me a winner, though I'm not convinced so I won't count that, and I have no backdoor flush.
And unfortunately, my emotions ran too hot for me to properly do simple math. See, I'm fairly bad at the math-end of poker (perhaps why I suck at limit). If I had done the math, I would have seen that I was being asked to call $100 to win $242. I was getting 2.42 to 1, which really meant that all I needed was a better than 29% chance to win to make the call. I actually had the perfect odds to call. Even if I was down to 7 outs, I would have been right at the borderline to call.
I mucked. And then unfortunately I paid $1 to see his cards. Guess what he had?
AJ.
Because I failed the math, I let myself get outplayed.
NEW POKER GOAL: become proficient at quickie pot-odds calculations, even under intense scrutiny and emotional duress.
Sunday, February 10, 2008
Hand Analysis
I'm going to break this down into a couple posts. Let me know what you think of my play and my thinking here. I've played against the opponent quite a bit, so I'm fairly familiar with his play.
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Seat 3: gsw61515 ($13.75)
Seat 9: PKTaceSuited ($7.40)
*** HOLE CARDS ***
gsw61515 raises to $0.35 with [Ks Kd] from UTG
PKTaceSuited calls $0.35 from the button
Standard button call I'd say, possibly suited connectors, possibly any pair, perhaps AK or AQ (though with AK, AQ, and QQ+ he'd be re-raising 99% of the time).
*** FLOP *** [7s 5s Td] (pot ~$0.85)
gsw61515 bets $0.60
PKTaceSuited calls $0.60
I'm OOP with a big pair, against a good button player. From my experience with him, he will raise here if he has a set, especially with two spades out there. He's capable of calling preflop with suited connectors or small or medium pair. Preflop: 55, 77, or 10 10 are possible; 57 is moderately possible but more unlikely; 7 10 and 5 10 are NOT in his range.
With his smooth-call here, I have to put him on a spade draw. 89 is possible, but if it were it would more likely than not be 8s 9s. If another spade comes I must tread carefully. The good news is I have the Ks, so AsKs is not possible (again, this would be a preflop re-raising hand for him anyway, so AK and AQ are out of the question: if an ace hits I'm not going to be too worried).
Did I bet enough? If he's committed to a showdown with a spade draw, I think I gave him good odds to call here; if he's chasing just to the turn though I didn't give him great odds, but it's close. 2/3 pot and he's got at best 14 outs: it's close I think.
Am I missing something, or does this smell like a spade draw?
-----------------------------------
*** TURN *** [7s 5s Td] [9d] (pot ~$2.05)
gsw61515 bets $1.40
PKTaceSuited calls $1.40
Again with the smooth call. Two diamonds and two spades now. It'd be unlikely he called with a diamond draw, unless it was something highly unlikely like 6d 8d. If he's there (or 6s 8s) then he just took the lead.
I made another roughly 2/3 pot bet, which I know is a bad price to chase a pure flush draw, but if he's got a straight draw to boot, he's chasing 14 outs: is 2/3 pot on the turn giving good odds here? I'm horrible with the minutia of the math here...
Do I start to worry about the monster under the bed at this point? Do I start to include 6s 8s in this range? I think I still have to stick with 8s 9s as his most likely holding. Any other 2 spades is also possible; however calling my flop bet with a pure spade draw is unlikely.
Am I giving this guy way too much credit? Do I need to not worry about this and just bang away with KK to extract maximum value?
------------------------
-------------------------
Seat 3: gsw61515 ($13.75)
Seat 9: PKTaceSuited ($7.40)
*** HOLE CARDS ***
gsw61515 raises to $0.35 with [Ks Kd] from UTG
PKTaceSuited calls $0.35 from the button
Standard button call I'd say, possibly suited connectors, possibly any pair, perhaps AK or AQ (though with AK, AQ, and QQ+ he'd be re-raising 99% of the time).
*** FLOP *** [7s 5s Td] (pot ~$0.85)
gsw61515 bets $0.60
PKTaceSuited calls $0.60
I'm OOP with a big pair, against a good button player. From my experience with him, he will raise here if he has a set, especially with two spades out there. He's capable of calling preflop with suited connectors or small or medium pair. Preflop: 55, 77, or 10 10 are possible; 57 is moderately possible but more unlikely; 7 10 and 5 10 are NOT in his range.
With his smooth-call here, I have to put him on a spade draw. 89 is possible, but if it were it would more likely than not be 8s 9s. If another spade comes I must tread carefully. The good news is I have the Ks, so AsKs is not possible (again, this would be a preflop re-raising hand for him anyway, so AK and AQ are out of the question: if an ace hits I'm not going to be too worried).
Did I bet enough? If he's committed to a showdown with a spade draw, I think I gave him good odds to call here; if he's chasing just to the turn though I didn't give him great odds, but it's close. 2/3 pot and he's got at best 14 outs: it's close I think.
Am I missing something, or does this smell like a spade draw?
-----------------------------------
*** TURN *** [7s 5s Td] [9d] (pot ~$2.05)
gsw61515 bets $1.40
PKTaceSuited calls $1.40
Again with the smooth call. Two diamonds and two spades now. It'd be unlikely he called with a diamond draw, unless it was something highly unlikely like 6d 8d. If he's there (or 6s 8s) then he just took the lead.
I made another roughly 2/3 pot bet, which I know is a bad price to chase a pure flush draw, but if he's got a straight draw to boot, he's chasing 14 outs: is 2/3 pot on the turn giving good odds here? I'm horrible with the minutia of the math here...
Do I start to worry about the monster under the bed at this point? Do I start to include 6s 8s in this range? I think I still have to stick with 8s 9s as his most likely holding. Any other 2 spades is also possible; however calling my flop bet with a pure spade draw is unlikely.
Am I giving this guy way too much credit? Do I need to not worry about this and just bang away with KK to extract maximum value?
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