Sunday, August 10, 2008

Is it sustainable?

Over the last 2 months I've booked pretty big wins overall. My sessions are typically approx 12 hours long, and I've been averaging about 17 big blinds per hour.

I wonder how sustainable this is, though. The games are playing bigger (the bigger buy-in level and the $1/$3 structure had a much bigger effect on the game than I had anticipated), and my bankroll is stable enough that I am very very comfortable playing for big pots and making large bets if I think I'll earn the pot.

The last two weekends were hudge wins ($1400 and $1555). I know some of it is the luck of the draw, but some has got to be my play: I've become much better at reads, and playing position aggressively. But I wonder how much is luck, and how much is me. There are players who I view as better than me that I've seen consistently walk away from the tables with much less profit.

I guess only time will tell which is the case, but I'm feeling really great about my game: I feel like I'm able to put my opponents on ranges pretty accurately, I've become very good at figuring out what I think my opponent thinks I have, I've become able to sniff out weakness, I'm able to use scare cards to bet my opponents off of likely winning hands...

I hope it's not just ROT...

On another note: while I had been expecting to step up to $3/$5, I'm not going to do that any time soon: the $1/$3 games are playing big enough that I'm sticking there for a while. Plus, and even though I'm doing well, losing 3 buy ins in an evening is possible in any game (I always come prepared with 3 full buy-ins), which in the $3/$5 game would mean $1500. I'm not sure I'm psychologically OK with the possibility of losing $1500 in one night. I'm OK with $600, but I fell like I'd be playing too scared. Maybe not, though, we'll see. In all honesty my bankroll is still not big enough to play comfortably there.

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