Live poker is so rigged

note to self: if a good opponent whom you've witnessed really only raising or folding is smooth calling your very large bets, there's a VERY GOOD CHANCE you're already beat.

played at the Tulalip this evening -- they had 1/2 with a max $100 buy in. That didn't sound like enough - only 50 BB's, so I opted for the 3/5 max 300 buy in. Yes, yes, yes I know - 60 big blinds, but I wanted the bigger action. My experience in Vegas playing $1/3 at Ceasar's which played more like a 2/5 game vs the 1/2 at the Venetian that played like a...well... a 1/2 game, I enjoyed the bigger action. I've got the money these days, so I might as well play for bigger stakes, and make it easier to beat the rake.

I'd been there a bout 2 hours; played very VERY tight; had c-bets picked off by 2 uber-aggressive players whom I was hoping at some point to use their aggression against them. My $300 buy in was whittled down slowly to just about $175, when this hand happened:

UTG, a VERY loosey-goosey player, upped it to one of the two "standard raises" for the table: $20 ($15 was the other standard). I find 88 in MP, and figure if no A, K, or Q hits the flop I'll take it down with a shove-raise, because I know he's going to c-bet. We get two more callers tagging along, one 2 to my right and one on the button (who is a very good, thinking, tricky player).

FLOP: 389 rainbow.

I immediately start trying to decide how to extract the most out of this hand, when UTG announces all-in. WOOOOOO!!!!!! Thanks for doin' my work for me, buddy! I didn't think the other guy would be calling anyway, but in case he did I wanted him to get all his chips in there, so I shoved as well. Amazingly enough, the next guy calls (I've got him and UTG covered)!!! Button-boy lays it down. Nice thing about Tulalip is they make you turn your cards over before they deal the rest of the cards in all-in situations, so we flipped our cards over. UTG had AJo (drawing dead); other dude has 34!!! He's looking for runner-runner something. That doesn't happen, and I take down a big pot, pushing my chip count to over $400. (at this point I immediately have the thought I should just take my profit and go home, OR go to the 1/2 game - this particular game is a tough game... )

SO a few hands later I'm UTG, and find AA. WOOOOO! I want to raise, but I don't want to call attention to my strength (plus I want some action!). I'd been raising 3x's the bb in ep/mp; and 4x's in lp (unless there were limpers in which case I'd raise it 3+(number of limpers)xbb, so I make it $15 to go. I get 4 callers. No exactly thrilled about going into a 5-way pot with aces.

Flop seems harmless -
K37 rainbow. BB checks; I bet out $50 (2/3 pot); then something peculiar happens: the toughest guy at the table, the guy who I have tried desperately to stay out of his way, makes the call from the button. I'm thinking possibly AK or KQ. Oddly still, is that the BB then calls. I have NO idea what he has, but I'm pretty sure I have him beat. I'm putting the button on a delayed-steal attempt.

Turn: blank. BB checks; I fire $100, and button-boy calls after the briefest hesitation. Then the BB calls! Last card: 7. There are now 3 clubs on the board, and 2 7's. Anyone playing 2 clubs or one or more 7's has me beat. BB goes all-in for his remaining $42. I smooth-call, in the hopes that button-boy is not too confident about his hand and mucks or at least doesn't raise.... no such luck. He shoved. I took a good 5 minutes to figure out what to do here, AND I MADE THE WORST CALL OF MY LIFE!!! I got married to my aces. The alarm bells just didn't go off loud enough or soon enough - why is a good, very aggressive player smooth calling my large bets (especially in light of how I played other hands). I should have figured that one of them has GOT to have me beat.... but instead, I'm married to my aces and call.

Button boy shows 33, for a flopped set and a rivered boat. Other dude had a Kx clubs, and rivered the flush, so my aces ended up being in last place.


I rebuy, and start playing well. I push my initial stack from $200 up to just under $300 with a few bets/raises/steals (I've become a little more aggressive now), when on the button I find AA. There have been 4 limpers, so I raise to $40. Blinds fold; MP dude (who just sat down fairly recently, has a fairly short stack - not even 150 - and didn't witness my cracked aces and should think I'm super-tight as I've been folding away for the past 20 minutes) makes the call. It's so hard for me to understand how you limp for $5 then call $35 more, but hey - more power to ya. Others fold, we're heads-up.

Flop: 4 10 4 all red. MP dude checks, I bet $75 (just under pot); he check/raises all-in! I've got to call $74 more. As I'm making the call, I announce to the table, "If this happens again, I'm leaving." Dude flips over 108o!! I can hear fuel55 now: "top pair is gold!" Turn is: an 8. And the river is.... yep - another 8. Runner-runner for a boat to crack the aces, holding complete rags and check/raise/shoving into an opponent who's really been playing super-tight. "Nice hand sir," I say, "very well played." I smile, wish the table good luck, and rack my chips and get the hell outta dodge! I swear if I avoided the one dude at the table, the rest of them were begging to give their chips away! But after the 2nd aces cracked, I was feeling very very tilty, and knew my image would be that of a punching bag, so I figured my best bet would be to high-tail it out of there. I don't believe I was on an unlucky streak, but I wasn't terribly fond of the table image I probably had at that point.

I'm tellin' ya - with patience, and some brains, that game would not be that tough to beat. I know two major leaks I have:
- getting married to a powerhouse hand and being unable to get rid of it, despite all the evidence that it's now beat
- tilting after taking beats.

I will be out there next weekend, and I will try the 1/2 tables and see how those games are -- there's a definite style difference between the PNW, AC, and Vegas, and I need to acclimate to the PNW style, so I should start smaller next time. Hell, maybe I'll go back tomorrow. Eh, I'll probably stay home and try some tilt tournaments.