Should've stacked him

Tulalip $1/$3.

UTG - new player, won first three hands he's played (this is his 4th), $300
HERO (OTB): Playing tighter than usual, table is a little too crazy to play super-lag, $400

UTG raises to $10. Folds to me, and I call with 8d 8c. SB calls.

FLOP: Jh 2h Jd

SB checks. UTG bets $20. I just don't think he's on a jack, and I can represent a flush if a heart falls, so I call. SB folds. Pot: $70.

TURN: [Jh 2h Jd] 8s

Miracle card. UTG bets $40. I take a little time, and smooth-call. Pot: $150

RIVER: [Jh 2h Jd 8s] Qd

UTG: Checks. I take some time, and bet $125. UTG SNAP-calls. I turn over the boat, and he mucks.

Moral of the story: Raise the turn. If UTG really has a jack, he's going to call most any raise. If he doesn't, then he won't put any more money in on the river anyway. If I made a smallish raise to $100 on the turn, he'd likely have called anyway, then the pot would be the right size for me to stick the rest in on the river, which he likely would have called. He likely had AJ there.

I missed out on about $100 by getting fancy and slow-playing my boat. I almost never slow-play, so I'm not sure what I was thinking.

ooops...

Tulalip $1/$3 game.

As my last post was about following my gut (thanks for the correction riggs), here's one where I followed my gut almost to my own detriment...

I'd been moved to this table about an hour ago. A guy 2 to my right was seemingly raising/re-raising every 3rd hand, playing super aggro. After a while I'd decided at some point I'd make a stand against him, as there's no way he's getting that many hands. No way. I just hadn't been able to even closely connect with the board, and I hadn't found a hand yet that I'd be able to intelligently call a 3-bet shove (which he did liberally) so re-popping was often out of the question.

Villain had approx. $250 (he'd recently lost a hudge chunk of his stack in a set-over-set matchup - it was close to a $1K pot). I had just about $300.

MP raises to $10. Villain calls, I call on the button with 5d 7d (one of my favorite types of hands).

FLOP: Td 7h 6s

MP checks
Villain bets $25
HERO: calls (middle pair in position is worth seeing a turn here)
MP folds

Pot: $80
TURN: [Td 7h 6s] 4d

Villain bets $50

I don't think he has anything. Why? I just don't know... I think he plays 2 overs the same way here, especially since he's bet me out of every pot we've been in together, which likely makes me look weak/passive. I've got a big draw here, though, so I'm going with it. I "tank," count out chips, and announces all-in. Villain insta-calls. 'Ooops,' I think to myself.

RIVER: [Td 7h 6s 4d] 5c

Villain shows Kc Ks
HERO shows 5d 7d for two pair.

Who would've thunk he had a real hand this time? Granted, I had a HUDGE draw (9 diamonds, 2 7's, 3 5's, 3 trey's, 3 8's = 20 outs), but still...

Follow your read

One thing I've been working on is following my read, even when I can't say what my read is based on. I've played a lot of cash game poker over the past 3 months - at least once / week, and most every session was at least 10 hours (most closer to 12-15 hours). I've gotten a lot better in general, and more specifically I've gotten much better at following my reads.

Game: private home-game, 6-handed $0.50/$0.50 NLHE, $100-$200 buy-in. We've got over $1,000 on the table. Deep stack poker is awesome. Play has been very aggressive.

SB: $400, possibly the most aggressive player at the table. This is the first time I've played with him (the rest of the table I've played with twice before).

Me OTB: $280. I've been picking my spots carefully, made some good plays that worked, made some good plays that were picked-off... having a great time, too.

CO limps in, I limp with Q2o. I did this because: a) I'm on the button, and I play almost anything 6-handed on the button with no raise, and b) there's a running joke on this email discussion list we're all on that claims Q2o to be the nuts. SB raises to $2.50, CO folds, I call.

FLOP: 929 rainbow.

SB bets $6. I call. Why? Something in his mannerism, or the way he tossed his chips, or something else, tells me he doesn't have anything. I consider raising, but this player loves to 3-bet, so I just call and hope to get to a showdown.

TURN: [929] 7x

SB bets $15. I call.

RIVER: [9297] Jx

SB bets $35. I take some time, count my chips, take a look at the SB, count the $35 out, take a look at the small blind. I just don't think he's got anything. My motto lately has been to pick my spots, and if I was following that I'd have folded preflop, or at least on the flop. But I also need to follow my reads, and if I think I've got the best hand I'm at least calling.

So I do call. SB says "Nice call. Ace high." I turn over Q2 and collect a $148 pot with a pair of ducks.

Am I writing this to brag? Only partly ;)

My point is if you have a read, follow it. Or, more specifically, if I have a read, I'm following it. I often cannot put my finger on what it is that gives me the read I have, so I guess that's the next step. But there are times when I'm playing where I get an almost overwhelmingly strong sense of exactly what's going on in the hand. That's what happened here.

It's a feeling I can't describe, but it just kind of 'makes sense,' in a similar way that great music just 'sounds good.'

Short break

After the past 3 months of playing once/week up at Tulalip (with 2 weekends I played Friday and Saturday), I've got an off weekend. I'm down in Orlando visiting my grandparents. Grandpa has pancreatic cancer, and is likely to start treatments in about 2-3 weeks. If the PET scans he just had done are not promising, though, well....he may skip the treatments and just go when it's time.

What a helluva scary decision that must be to make.

Anyway...

So normally, this time of the week I'd be at the tables (I start around 3-4pm Pacific and go for 1-16 hours typically). The last break I took was when I was running really bad, and the break was good for me to examine my game.

This time, though, I've been on fire. Yea, luck-boxed into some pots. But I'll tell ya - I feel better and more confident about my game today than I ever have. I fell like I've finally, after all these years, finally I've begun to flourish into a real poker player.

I need to work on some aspects of my game. I know I need to come up with a physical routine at the tables, as I know I give off some physical tells to observant players. I need to continue to work on my value betting. And I'd like to get to the level where I'm trying to misrepresent my hand to my oponent...

These will be necessary for me to be sucessful once I step up to $3/$5. The $1/$3 game (with the $200 buy in) is playing a lot like the old 2-5 game was playing, just not quite as big. It's really the perfect game for where I'm at though: can beat the players, can beat the rake, can build a bankroll, can have losing sessions that won't be psychologically devastating... you know, moving up may not happen for quite a while.

I'd like to make more money at the game, and I will take a shot at some point, but for now - I'm earning enough to pay for school and books, and to sock some away for when I"m in my poorly paid internship next summer. Yea, I want to step up, but my bankroll would be in jeopardy after 1 really bad night. I can't jeopardize my poker career just by taking a shot at the next level. I'm not worried about the play there: I'm confident I will do fine at that level. At this point, though, one $3/$5 downswing would hurt the roll and my psyche too much...

I'd love to be at the tables... as much as I'm loving the vacation, I've got two things I'm looking forward to next weekend: Friday, Angel and I are going to a play then a late dinner (and perhaps dessert at my place), then Saturday - back up at the tables.

I run damn good

Tulalip $1 / $3

Hero ($1300). LP. Last 1/3 table going, and I've been playing well, running well, and playing against idiots who apparently hate money.

SB ($600). Straight-forward player; won a huge pot with quads a while back. Nothing fancy, typical player.

UTG ($25). Tulalip bartender who's been waiting and waiting for the nuts, blinding off and chasing stuff.

Bunch of limpers, so I decide to see a flop with QTo. Shut up, it's a weak ass hand, I know, but more likely than not everyone will miss, I'll bet, everyone will fold, money comes my way. Been doing it all night.

Pot: $18
FLOP: Jc Qc Th rainbow.

Unlikely AK is out there, as it's been limped. SB bets $12, UTG pushes all -in. I've got top two, and don't want any more flush draws in there, so I bump it to $75. Folds to SB who calls.

Pot: $190
TURN: [Th Jc Qc] Tc

SB checks. I bet out $150. The flush got there, so I hope he's got the nut flush. When the SB calls, it smells like a flush. Sweeeeet!

Pot: $490

RIVER: [Th Jc Qc Tc] Qd

Kind of an unfortunate river, as if he had a Q we're now chopping. SB checks. I fire out $250 (in green $25 chips). SB shows 7c 8c and folds. Apparently, he was looking for the 9c (or was hoping I'd stop betting and that his flush was good). UTG turns over AK for the flopped straight (well played, and no - she wasn't looking for a limp reraise). I turn over QT for da boat.

$490 in a limped pot. not bad, not bad at all....

The stuff that dreams are made of

Tulalip $1/$3

Hero: MP, $900. Playing aggressively, making moves, pushing the table around. Very much a LAG image. Even though when the big pots come up I almost always have the goods, people continue to think I'm just making moves on them.

Cut-Off: 1st time playing poker in a casino. Luck-boxed into a few medium-size pots. $240 (up from $100).

BB: Young kid. No read. Not involved in more than a couple pots over the last hour or so. Casual player. $180.

UTG raises to $12. I look down at 2 black aces, and I bump it to $35. CO calls. BB takes a few seconds, and announces all-in. Folds to me. It's spread-limit, so I know the betting is capped, but I still announce "All-In." Dealer tells me it's capped, so I say I call and am all-in blind before the flop. CO calls. Dealer pulls money in, and I put out $200 before the flop, CO pushes his chips into the pot.

I have no idea what the flop turn or river were. Nobody improved.

BB showed pocket deuces (?!); CO shows AhQd (?!?!).

Insanity. $180 with 22. $240 with AQ0. I love this game!!!

Is it sustainable?

Over the last 2 months I've booked pretty big wins overall. My sessions are typically approx 12 hours long, and I've been averaging about 17 big blinds per hour.

I wonder how sustainable this is, though. The games are playing bigger (the bigger buy-in level and the $1/$3 structure had a much bigger effect on the game than I had anticipated), and my bankroll is stable enough that I am very very comfortable playing for big pots and making large bets if I think I'll earn the pot.

The last two weekends were hudge wins ($1400 and $1555). I know some of it is the luck of the draw, but some has got to be my play: I've become much better at reads, and playing position aggressively. But I wonder how much is luck, and how much is me. There are players who I view as better than me that I've seen consistently walk away from the tables with much less profit.

I guess only time will tell which is the case, but I'm feeling really great about my game: I feel like I'm able to put my opponents on ranges pretty accurately, I've become very good at figuring out what I think my opponent thinks I have, I've become able to sniff out weakness, I'm able to use scare cards to bet my opponents off of likely winning hands...

I hope it's not just ROT...

On another note: while I had been expecting to step up to $3/$5, I'm not going to do that any time soon: the $1/$3 games are playing big enough that I'm sticking there for a while. Plus, and even though I'm doing well, losing 3 buy ins in an evening is possible in any game (I always come prepared with 3 full buy-ins), which in the $3/$5 game would mean $1500. I'm not sure I'm psychologically OK with the possibility of losing $1500 in one night. I'm OK with $600, but I fell like I'd be playing too scared. Maybe not, though, we'll see. In all honesty my bankroll is still not big enough to play comfortably there.

Aces never win...

Tulalip $1/$3 "No limit" game.

Part 1:
It's deep into the session; the player to my right is a huge fish with a $1,100 chip stack (don't ask). I'm sitting on the button with around $900, and am doing everything in my power to get into pots with the fish. Dude in the BB is a new player, very casual player, with about $250.

MP limper, Fish McFish limps, I limp with Ks Js, SB completes, BB raises to $20. MP folds, Fish calls. My hand is pretty weak, but instead of thinking of this as 2 broadway cards, I'm playing this as a suited 1-gapper; in other words, I'm not looking to hit just top pair - I need straights and flushes and two pair for this hand to be worthwhile. If Fish mucked, so did I: I was looking for reasons to get into pots with him. He had about $1600 just a couple hours back, and he's been slowly leaking that money around the table; I want my share!

3 to the flop, $60 in the pot.

FLOP:
K2J rainbow

BB bets out $50. Fish folds (oh well). I raise to $125. BB hesitates, then calls.

TURN:
[K2J] 5

BB goes all-in. I call.

River:
[K2J5] J.

BB turns over AA. I show KJ for the full house.

Easy game.

------------------------------

Part 2:
I'm UTG with AA, and I raise to $15. Guy in the cut-off (thinking player, aggressive) puts in $10. He didn't realize there was a raise, so then he just tosses in another $5 chip. Button calls, BB calls. 4 to the flop, $60 in the pot.

FLOP:
Qh 5h 8s

BB checks. I bet $75 (lotta flush chasers at this level, want to price them out, as I don't have the ace of hearts). Cut-off raises all-in for $100 more. Folds to me, I call.

Turn and river are meaningless.

I turn over aces for one pair. Cut off turns over QQ for flopped top set.

So freakin' rigged...

Big Score

Had my biggest one night win Saturday night at the $1/$3 Tulalip casino game. At one point I was up to $1800, but ended up cashing out at $1625, for a profit of $1425. Brilliant poker playing?

Not at all. I was watching one of the Live at the Bike episodes late Friday, and one of the announcers called it out just right: he said NL hold 'em is a game of mistakes. The object is to make as few mistakes as you can, and capitalize on the mistakes of your opponents. That's pretty much what I was doing. I'd catch players over-playing medium-strength hands, and just take their money. Here's a great example:

I'm in middle position with 7h 8h, and I limp in. Player on the button pops it to $20. It folds around to me, and I call. At this point, we're both pretty deep for these levels: I've got about $600, and he's got about $400. As a general rule, I use the 10-times rule to decide whether to call with hands like small pocket pairs and low-mid suited connectors: if the player has 10 times the amount of his raise (and, of course, I do too), and I think he'll pay me off if I hit, then I'll call. If not, then it's not worth it.

I also know, too, that this is quite a large raise for this player, and the last time he made this large preflop overbet he showed jacks, so I have an idea right off the bat where he's at.

2 players, pot is $44.

FLOP:
Kd 8c 8s

I lead out for $30. He pops it to $100. I smooth-call, and plan on leading any turn. He says something like "Great, I've been trying all night to avoid you, and here we are." Whatever; unless he has K8 or KK I'm good..

TURN:
[Kd 8c 8s] 2c

Pot is $244, he's got about $300 left. I bet $100, he goes all-in. Of course, I call.

RIVER:
[Kd 8c 8s 2c] a meaningless river card

I show 7h 8h for trip 8's. He shows Tc Td for 2 pair. And for some reason he goes off for about 5 minutes on how I can call with that garbage. I ask him if he plays suited connectors and he says, "not like that." I say something to the effect of him obviously being a limit player, which he didn't take too kindly to.

Thing is -- I'd probably play AK just as fast, and I'd expect him to as well. I can't tell you how shocked I was when he didn't have a king there. Insanity.

------------------

So for the next hour this guy is steam-raising and playing super-aggro. I don't mind; if I don't have a hand I get out of the way, all the while he's building up a nice stack from the rest of the table.

Then, round two:

After a couple limpers, I raise to $15 from middle-late position with 3c 4c. I'm raising often, but not excessively, and I'm mixing up what I'm raising and limping with, so this fits in to the script perfectly (see this post). Same dude calls me from the button. Blinds fold.

Pot is $40.

FLOP:
[Td 4h 3s]

Not a bad flop, eh?

I bet $30. He calls, and gives a little speech: "You'd better have something this time." I don't know what this means, except that he must've hit part of that flop or has a pocket pair. TT he'd for certain raise here.

TURN:
[Td 4h 3s] 3d

Well, I've got a likely lock on the hand. I don't get fancy: I want to build a pot, so I stick some money in there. He already told me on the flop he liked his hand, so the 3 is likely not going to affect his hand quality, so he should be able to call here too. I bet out $50. He comes over the top and goes all in for another $250 or so. Massive bet. Massive.

I, of course, call.

RIVER:
[Td 4h 3s 3d] 9h

I show 3c 4c for a full house. He shows 3h 5h for trip 3's. He then gets an attitude again, saying "You raised with 3c 4c?" I remind him that not only did he call preflop with 35o, but that he called a flop bet with bottom pair. He then goes on like a doofus saying "I can't beat you, I just can't beat you can I?" He says a few other rude things as he's standing up to leave. I ask him if he's going to the ATM, because we'll save his seat for him.

That may have been a little over-the top, but the table got a laugh from it.

Bye bye Bodog?

Reading this article on Forbes online, it sure sounds like Bodog may not be long for the world.

The tenor of the article makes it sound like FTP and Stars are in danger too, though I doubt that. I'm hoping the Bush administration yahoos decide to concentrate their efforts on real criminals over the next 6 months...

And for an expert comentary on the situation, check out this youtube video (no, it's not a rickroll!).