I got two words for yaaaaaaaa!!!!

Maybe I just suck at poker. I couldn't take the swings I happened to be going through in limit; and I missed the protection against draws you can normally use in NL. So I set limit aside and started playing online again; some small NL cash + smaller buy-in tourny's... I get crushed - a lot. I can't put my finger on it; I feel like I was simply getting unlucky, but - I dunno... I mean yea, some of my beats were disgusting. But there is this trend, especially in end-game & bubble time. I have only taken down a small handful of these, collected a bunch of 3rds, a bunch of bubbles, and a handful of 2nds. My heads-up play has suffered enormously (if it ever were good, which I'm not sure anymore).

I'm wondering if I've ever been good at this game. Last year I showed a nice profit in poker; online wasn't nearly as profitable as live, but I believe live play as only enhanced by my online play. But lately, I'm just - I feel like for the past two months I've been playing a ton online, yet getting sucked out on left and right, or just making a move with horrendous timing. Yea, I took bad beats: yesterday getting felted in cash games with runner-runner straight flush beating my set, then set over set and set over top two... BUT: am I overplaying these hands? Is my play so erratic and/or predictable that I just get exploited?

I don't have a clue. I know I had been playing super-tight/ super-weak-tight/ super-pussy-tight at times. And I recognized that and corrected it (for the most part). I also know I had been giving my opponents too much credit at times, and I corrected that - i.e. if the river completes a flush (etc) and my opponent makes a big bet it doesn't always mean they hit it; I just started following the stories of their bets better. I just have somehow managed to lose more often than I feel I should. I've been watching some folks I know play online too (watching riggstad is a clinic in and of itself), and though he is a much better and more experienced player than I, I don't think my play is that far away that I would continually get beaten the way I have been.

I've never really believed in the 'online poker is rigged' crap that floats around all through the cyber-poker rooms; but MAN! - I should start logging what seem like bad beats, as well as seemingly unlucky beats - to see if they're happening at any higher percentage than they "should be." I SO doubt that they do, b/c especially with tools like Poker Tracker, somebody would have already fished this out. I guess I'm just feeling super unlucky: how many times either at or just after a bubble I find KK, push, and called by AA? Or I find QQ, push and called by KK? Yea, those are unlucky, absolutely, but if I go by Phil Gordon's chart, if I wake up to KK and push when it's 4-way, chances of my opponent having AA is 1.5%. If it's 4 way and I wake up to QQ, chances of an opponent having KK or AA is 3%. If I find JJ and it's 3 way, the chances of an opponent having QQ, KK, or AA is 3%. How then, in the last 7-8 sit n go's I played, do each of these happen? That's happened in just under 50% of the time. Yes, I know - tiny sample.

My god... I can't believe what I just did... I actually just did a google serach on "Bodog rigged." Geeze!! I mean yea, I just read a bunch of awful stories to rival what I just wrote and back up my feeling, but -- why would they do it? Their RNG code is reviewed by Gaming Associates, who are the same folks who also review code for Kahnawake Gaming Commission sites like Full Tilt (side note: funny how they're called "GA" which often stands for a completely different organization in the gambling world). I don't see how they would benefit from "rigging" games, because somebody's always gonna have to win, right? And how would they "decide" who would win / lose? And if they did, do you know how complex that computer code would have to be? Probably not nearly worth the trouble as just running a site and letting the numbers work out.

Which means I'm back at square one: I suck. Either that, or I'm just in a year full of bankroll downswing. I guess that's possible. If that is the case, I hope it turns around before I get to Vegas next month!