Hand Analysis

I'm going to break this down into a couple posts. Let me know what you think of my play and my thinking here. I've played against the opponent quite a bit, so I'm fairly familiar with his play.
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Seat 3: gsw61515 ($13.75)
Seat 9: PKTaceSuited ($7.40)

*** HOLE CARDS ***
gsw61515 raises to $0.35 with [Ks Kd] from UTG
PKTaceSuited calls $0.35 from the button

Standard button call I'd say, possibly suited connectors, possibly any pair, perhaps AK or AQ (though with AK, AQ, and QQ+ he'd be re-raising 99% of the time).



*** FLOP *** [7s 5s Td] (pot ~$0.85)
gsw61515 bets $0.60
PKTaceSuited calls $0.60

I'm OOP with a big pair, against a good button player. From my experience with him, he will raise here if he has a set, especially with two spades out there. He's capable of calling preflop with suited connectors or small or medium pair. Preflop: 55, 77, or 10 10 are possible; 57 is moderately possible but more unlikely; 7 10 and 5 10 are NOT in his range.

With his smooth-call here, I have to put him on a spade draw. 89 is possible, but if it were it would more likely than not be 8s 9s. If another spade comes I must tread carefully. The good news is I have the Ks, so AsKs is not possible (again, this would be a preflop re-raising hand for him anyway, so AK and AQ are out of the question: if an ace hits I'm not going to be too worried).

Did I bet enough? If he's committed to a showdown with a spade draw, I think I gave him good odds to call here; if he's chasing just to the turn though I didn't give him great odds, but it's close. 2/3 pot and he's got at best 14 outs: it's close I think.

Am I missing something, or does this smell like a spade draw?

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*** TURN *** [7s 5s Td] [9d] (pot ~$2.05)
gsw61515 bets $1.40
PKTaceSuited calls $1.40

Again with the smooth call. Two diamonds and two spades now. It'd be unlikely he called with a diamond draw, unless it was something highly unlikely like 6d 8d. If he's there (or 6s 8s) then he just took the lead.

I made another roughly 2/3 pot bet, which I know is a bad price to chase a pure flush draw, but if he's got a straight draw to boot, he's chasing 14 outs: is 2/3 pot on the turn giving good odds here? I'm horrible with the minutia of the math here...

Do I start to worry about the monster under the bed at this point? Do I start to include 6s 8s in this range? I think I still have to stick with 8s 9s as his most likely holding. Any other 2 spades is also possible; however calling my flop bet with a pure spade draw is unlikely.

Am I giving this guy way too much credit? Do I need to not worry about this and just bang away with KK to extract maximum value?

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