Guess I shouldn't feel too bad.

So I'm down 20 buy-ins. Big deal so far. Looking at Chris Ferguson's bankroll, he dropped over $16K in 10 days.

Just variance. Only not as big as Chris's!

Poker Gods, why hath you forsaken me?

Unsure whether I have changed to playing like crap, or I'm just on a horrible run. My gut tells me it's a bit of both, as being down roughly 20 buy-ins over 3 weeks is pretty crappy. Sure, I've taken my share of suck-outs, but still.... I need to analyze my game from Oct-Dec to find the strong points, and compare that to Dec-now. Basically, I'm right back where I started back in October, so from a cash standpoint, no harm/no foul.

Horrible run? Horrible play? Dunno...

Friends are playing a teeny poker game Friday night: dealer's choice, nickle-ante, $0.10/$0.25 limit / 3-raise-max. Should be fun if nothing else; I hope to play the strangest combination of starters I can think up. Also hoping I can talk these guys into a NL game the next time. We'll see.

Hoping to hit Tulalip on Saturday - planning on getting there a bit earlier than usual and sitting at $1/$2 (instead of $3/$5). I may play a sit n go or 2 online; I played one turbo HU the other night and dominated. I think I need to step away from the cash tables for a spell.

Tulalip - Two Thursday hands

Tulalip $3/$5

I've folded for 3 orbits, and observed insanely loose-passive play from most of the table, with one LAGGY raising and C-betting all but maybe one pot he's been in. He's been picking up a lot of dead money without having to show any cards. I'm UTG with KK. Awesome.

I raise to $20
Folds to Laggy in MP who calls, others fold. Pot = $48

FLOP: 6s 4c 10d
I check, hoping laggy will c-bet (like he has all but maybe 2 pots he's been in)
Laggy checks.

TURN: [6s 4c 10d] 3d
I bet $40
Laggy calls.
This looks like it could be 5-7, and I thought about this. However, I'm convinced he would have bet the flop with an OESD. (and yes, I believe 5-7 could easily have been in his range).

RIVER: [6s 4c 10d 3d] 5h
I check.
Laggy bets $50
I reluctantly call, almost certain I'm beat.

Laggy shows Ad 7h for the straight. First off, he called 4xs BB bet from an UTG player who had yet to play a hand in 45 minutes. Secondly, he made that call with A7o! FINALLY, that's right, he called $40 on the turn with a gut-shot; with the over that gave him 7 outs. Awesome call man, awesome call.

Why did I make this call when I was almost sure I was beat? He could have played AK the same way; he also could have believed I had AK, and once I checked the river it gave him the green light to make a play.

Nice thing about this evening for him: he made some awful calls on draws that hit; he's going to believe he played well, and play like that the next time too. And hopefully I'll have the privilege of sitting at his table in the future.

--------------------
--------------------

2 hours later, I'm stuck, and my stack has been whittled down to ~$100. A few new players just came to the table. My table image of über-tight won't matter at all now, and the short stack makes it look like I'm either playing like crap or am super unlucky.

MP raises to $15; MP+1 calls.
I call on the button with Ac Qs.

FLOP: 9c As 5s
MP bets $30, MP+1 folds
I push for $85 more; MP insta-calls.

Board: 9c As 5s 10c 3d

MP shows Ah 10d for 2 pair.

Awesome call with top pair/OK kicker. I can't see making that call on the flop. I was so glad he did, though - I'd love to be called in that spot ever time, with the dude chasing a 3-outer. Funny thing too, when we flipped our cards over he seemed genuinely surprised that I had him out-kicked.

Cold-decks suck.

DQB squared!!

The THRILL of VICTORY:




....and the AGONY of defeat:



Must say, though, that I loved the guy on the top hand (my flopped quads) shoved on the turn. I'm glad that I at least waited until I had a boat (my QQ hand) to shove! Actually, I checked the turn and OBFV on the river -- ooops!

After he checked the turn, I even momentarily thought "he could have quads" and for the slightest of split seconds contemplated smooth-calling his small value-bet-sized river bet. I'm glad I didn't though; that's definitely a situation I don't mind busting out in.

OBFV

After reading a couple recent posts by fuel55, I decided to try some overbetting for value when I'm super strong or holding the stones. I feel like I'd gotten pretty good online at value betting on the river, but in just a couple hands this past weekend where my overbets were called probably earned me as much as my "standard" value-bets would over the course of a week.

I haven't gone totally nuts and shoved when the pot is only a couple bucks, but I'll easily bet $4 into a $1 pot.

CASE IN POINT:

I'm UTG with 89o. I limp (shut up, I hear you laughing; some of these tables are very limp friendly and I will take advantage of that with a wide range of hands). Folds to SB who pops it to $0.30; BB folds, I call (position, connectors, yada yada).

FLOP:
Ah 9h 8c

SB fires $0.65, I call with bottom 2 pair.

TURN:
[Ah 9h 8c] 9d

I quickly enable the "check" checkbox (I've been doing this when very strong, as the insta-check often is read as weaknes, or a draw), so when the SB checks, so do I.

River:
[Ah 9h 8c 9d] Kh

God how I hope they were on a flush draw!

SB checks; I fire $4 into the $1.80 pot, and get instacalled:




Here's one where I either played great, I played recklessly, or I missed a bet on the river:

WhereAreMyChips calls $0.10
Poker464 calls $0.10
PACIFICPOWER calls $0.10
gsw61515 calls $0.10 with [Tc 9c]
tlopirt sukram calls $0.10
chamchum checks

*** FLOP *** [Jc 9d Th]
chamchum checks
WhereAreMyChips checks
Poker464 checks
PACIFICPOWER bets $0.40
gsw61515 raises to $0.80 <-- 2 pair is vulnerable, I'll try to protect a little
tlopirt sukram folds
chamchum folds
WhereAreMyChips folds
Poker464 folds
PACIFICPOWER calls $0.40

*** TURN *** [Jc 9d Th] [8s]
PACIFICPOWER checks
gsw61515 has 15 seconds left to act
gsw61515 bets $1.50
PACIFICPOWER calls $1.50
This call worried me. Any 7 or any Q kills me. I will proceed with caution.

*** RIVER *** [Jc 9d Th 8s] [4c]
PACIFICPOWER checks
gsw61515 checks <-- can't risk getting check-raised with a straight

*** SHOW DOWN ***
gsw61515 shows [Tc 9c] two pair, Tens and Nines
PACIFICPOWER mucks [Ac Ts] <-- top pair no good!
gsw61515 wins the pot ($4.75) with two pair, Tens and Nines

oh yea, freerolls

Well, since I'm still on emotional tilt, and it would not be responsible of me to put any real money on the line, what better to feed my poker itch than a couple Poker After Dark freerollls on FTP? Nevermind the "grand prize" for the 180 or 360-seat sit n go's is entrance into a 100 full tilt point tourny, "Why not?" I said. I quickly busted out of 2, then fired up 2 more: 1 180-seater, and 1 360 seater.

180 seater I busted in 6th. 360 seater, I'm now 4 of 7. This coming from someone who hadn't played in any tournament in over a month, closer to 2 months.

If I got paid off on hands in ring games like I did in these, I'd be quite a .... well, probably not wealthy, but I'm sure at least my bankroll would be very comfortable!

Preflop: JJ in SB. A couple limpers; I pot-raise. Button calls.
FLOP:8c 6d Jd

I 1/2-pot bet; button min-raises, I shove - INSTAcall:



ahh, that's the best on really. I'll spare you the silliness of more screen caps and HH's from a PAD freeroll.

Let's just say I was pretty happy with how I played. Sure, the fields are donk-filled, but to navigate through 352 or 174 people takes a little more than card catching. Cards help, but so does shoving or re-popping at the right times.

want to, but can't

It's late, it's my prime playing time, but I can't. Well, I physically could, but I won't. Why?

SERIOUS life tilt. And playing on tilt is -EV; playing on THIS emotional tilt could be putting my roll in danger. Seriously.

Sure, it'd be fun to go be an aggressive bull trying to push the table around. I also know better: I'm HIGHLY emotional right now, and staying away from the tables is the most +EV thing I can do right now.

Sad thing is I've got so much coffee going through my veins that I'm going to be up for hours; it's a damn shame, as these are historically my biggest money winning hours (after midnight on the weekends).

What to do? Damned if I know...

call?!!

...courtesy of PokerNews.com:

Antonio Casale has the button in Seat 3. Alexander Kostritsyn raises to 72,000, Antonio Casale re-raises to 277,000, Kostritsyn three-bets to 677,000 total, Casale four-bets to 1,277,000, Kostritsyn moves all in and Casale calls. There is nearly 5 million in the pot.

Casale
Kostritsyn

JJ? JJ?! I'm sorry, but with $1.65 million AUD on the line, I don't call off the remainder of my stack with JJ. I don't get the dude's 4-bet: if he's pot committing himself, why not try to get some fold equity out of it and shove there? Sure it wouldn't affect this hand, as he'd get called in a heartbeat, but it could get QQ and AK to fold.

I just hate the idea of calling off my stack preflop with JJ ...then again, I'm the guy who posts about being on a bad run at $0.05/$0.10 NL :)

1st in 11 days

First winning session in 11 days. Some big pots, too:

Called a min-raise preflop with 44 in the BB. SB leads out min-betting the flop, I pop to $0.50, called by LP. Turn was a blank, I bet, LP1 shoved, LP2 shoved, I called:



Had to call another min-raise with J10o in the SB. This isn't the best hand to play OOP by any means, but for an extra bet I'll see a flop 4-way. I lead out 1/2 pot bet on the flop with my OESD, button min-raises (I was expecting any raise to be a min-raise: I lead out with 1/2 pot so any raise would make what would have been pot-sized, which is fine for an OESD on the flop). Turn gives me the nuts, I bet and get 1 caller; I shove the river and get called:




Lucked out on this hand: I call a min-raise from the BB with J7s. Yes, yes, no powerhouse, but the table is so passive post-flop that if I hit and bet, I'm probably good. 5-way made it too hard to throw away anything for one BB. I call a $0.20 bet from the SB, one caller comes along. On the turn, SB checks, I bet $0.30 (trying to control the pot size from OOP); LP raises to $1.00. I make a loose call here: their flop, turn, and river agression is infinite over 500+ hands, so the raise doesn't necessarily mean anything. Turns out I rivered him, and bet enough to put him all in:




Felt good to get a winning session again. I'm sure 11 days without a winning session isn't too bad; and I don't know how many buy ins is a big loss, but I was down $150 in those 11 days, which felt like a lot, especially since I worked for 2+ months building the roll. Granted it's still healthy, still way above where I started back in Oct/Nov, so I'm happy. It's an inevitable part of the game, I know, and I was lucky to have such a long run of mostly profitable sessions. It's good for me to be reminded of the variance inherent in the game.

How to play junk OOP

Battle of the blinds; I'm in BB with AKo. Folds to SB who completes; I raise to $0.30, he calls.

FLOP:
Js Ac 4s

SB bets $0.60
I pop to $1.20
SB calls $0.60 (awesome)

TURN: [Js Ac 4s] Qh
SB bets $1.65
I min-raise (would be all-in for SB to call); SB instacalls.

From this, what do you expect SB to have? QJ? AQ? K10?

Watch and learn, my friend, watch and learn:


Next time there are two overs and a straight draw on the board, I'll try to remember to make a committing bet on the turn so I can hit my 5-outer...

limits, & discipline

So I broke a bit of a cardinal rule the other night: I played a limit above what my bankroll can safely withstand. I didn't go all Rounders and put my whole stake at the table or anything silly. I only played at $0.10/$0.25. My bankroll is just way too light to sustain any swings at this level, and I knew that if I busted here that I would have to permanently banish myself from this limit until I've built back up.

Good news: a) I didn't bust, and b) I ended about $10 up.

Bad news: I played like a pussy.

Due only to my own idiocy as I have been on a big downswing, I sat at a $25 NL table the other night, with a $20 buy in. I justified this as "OK" since I typically 2-table at $10NL, so I have the same amount on the line (and no, in a much more lucid frame of mind I don't buy this!). It's really amazing the difference in play at these two levels, and if anything I think that $25NL may even be easier to beat.

Why? Because the players at $25 NL seem to "know a little bit" about what they're doing, which if you use to your advantage can let you steal pots you don't even have the right to be in in the first place.

I'm torn over this, though. My online bankroll is too light to safely play there right now, BUT I enjoy playing there much more than $10NL. It's a more interesting game, whereas $10NL feels more like robot-poker.

I've got to have discipline, though, or else my online roll will be at a great risk.

Awesome time for 2 pair

Keep the beats coming

*** HOLE CARDS ***
gsw61515 raises to $0.30 with [Ac Jc]
REYN14 calls $0.30
BuffBills044 calls $0.25

*** FLOP *** [5d As Js]
BuffBills044 checks
gsw61515 checks (to induce a bet)
REYN14 bets $1
BuffBills044 folds
gsw61515 raises to $3
REYN14 calls $2, and is all in
gsw61515 shows [Ac Jc]
REYN14 shows [Ad Qd] <-- nice setup

*** TURN *** [5d As Js] [Ah]

*** RIVER *** [5d As Js Ah] [Qh] <-- I got 2-outered!!!
gsw61515 shows a full house, Aces full of Jacks
REYN14 shows a full house, Aces full of Queens <-- I LOVE boat-over-boat!

more stats

...if you ever had doubts about how important position is in NLHE, consider my stats:
- I've won more money from the button than any other position.
- 2nd most profitable position: CO
- 3rd most: CO-1
- 4th most: CO-2

My stats read like a text book. And though I've won a higher percentage of hands from the BB than any other position (probably due to a large number of walks), I've lost more money from the BB than any other position.

Also:
My most losing hand (besides high card, which is probably from a combination of checking down from the BB and bad bluff attemtps) is one pair. I'm reminded again of The Little Green Book: don't go broke with one pair! I have more times than I'd like to admit.

Conversely, I've won more money with flushes than any other hand. I'm betting that's due strongly to the fact that at micro-limits I will limp in with any suited ace (and, if stacks are deep, will call a standard-size raise in position as well), and at these limits anyone with a flush thinks their golden: in other words, when I have a flush I most often have the nut flush (outside of the suited connectors that I play, and play a flush carefully).

Going over stats is a good thing for me: I'm either playing horribly, or just running really, really badly over the past week. Just the stats for position and the awful numbers for one-pair wins are really telling: I'm committing too much $$ out of position, trying too many bluffs, and paying off too many winners with just one pair.

A little luck never hurts

The almighty JackAce. Limp/called min-raise from LP. UTG bet pot on the flop, I re-potted it; LP writes "set?" and then mucks. I type "just raise so I can muck," the guy shoves, and I call:

Turns out my shove was a great idea: the LP raiser (who typed "set?) claimed he had AJ as well. My shove avoided a split pot.


Next one is self-explanatory - kind of. A number of limpers preflop, and SB pops it to $0.50. I min-raise to $0.90. He pot-raises; I pot raise (kind of felt like Euro-Rounders, but it worked), he finally shoves, and (of course), I call:

I'm not sure if I continue to raise pre if I'm him: at some point with QQ I think I'd just call and see a flop.


Last one was a bit of a gambool: I raised pre from the CO with 6d7d, button reraises, I smooth call. The flop gives me a flush draw, and unless he has an overpair I'm in good shape. He raises my flop bet, I shove, he INSTAcalls:


Thankfully I didn't have to wait long for the flush, but OMG runner-runner straight frackin' flush!!

Yea, I know, shoving with a 7-high flush draw may not be +EV. Like I mentioned yesterday most all of my mistakes of late have been from being too aggressive. I think this is the first time in a long, long time where my game is at a turning point. I was a smart player, then I became a decent player, and I'm at the point where I'm moving away from "decent" and towards "good." I'd be surprised if I didn't screw up some during this time.

Most every transition is uncomfortable, and I'm sure to stumble some more while I grow. But it'll be worth it in the end.

sink or swim

Sure, it's a short down swing. It just sucks. I lost a couple buy-ins at $10NL last night. Again, I don't feel like I'm playing poorly, I just...well... I'm bleeding money. I think perhaps I tightened up too much: at $10NL I had good success when I was seeing 35% of the flops; I tightened up a bit at $25NL and see 25-30%, and thought if I carried that trend at the lower level that my win rate would go up.

Two things I both love and hate at $10NL: 1. If someone holds 63o on a 3KQJ9r board, there's a good chance they won't be able to fold (how do you call half-pot and 3/4 pot bets with a 3 on that board?!); AND2. Shoving $6 (read: 60 bb's) or more preflop 10 times in a row.

The first one is usually +EV, as when you have A10 or J10 or such you get paid off. I make plays for pots on occasion too, and boards like that are often perfect for it. The times you bluff at it with say 67s and get called by the monsterous 63o is laughably annoying.

The second one is, for me, just a little annoying and an exercise in patience. When I'm not getting a good price I typically won't call here without KK or AA. Last night a shove-monkey took a bad beat and shoved 13 hands in a row. He's in MP, I'm immediately to his left with QQ. After 13 shoves I figured there's a good chance QQ is good here. Well, he tables KK, and flops a K to boot.

Awesome.

I know one thing I should have done, but did not: shortly after this beat, I noticed my emotions were on a roller coaster. At that point, I should have shut down FTP and watched one of the Lost Season 3 DVD special features (when my emotions are riled it affects my play - yes, even at $10NL). Instead, I tried to play through, and tightened up too much I think. While some people spew when they tilt, I clamp down. Both are -EV.

To end the night, I decided to really torture myself and played some RAZZ. I actually made up some of my losses (which is why I was down only 2, and not 3, buy ins). So tonight if I play I'll either be at Razz or possibly even the teeny SNG's - it's been months since I was in one of those.

Though if I stick to my best game (NLHE) I've got a better chance to curtail the downswing. Yea, I'm down over $120 since Friday. Now I see why playing $25NL too light is dangerous; though an even worse decision was to wait too long to move down.

Movin' on down...

After horrendous results this weekend (horrendous as in being down $100), I have to step back down to $0.05/$0.10. The vast majority of my losses were a result of too much aggression (which, for me, is a good thing (in a way) as I had become a little too passive at .05/.10).

The biggest one I remember is raising my opponent all-in on a KQx flop when I held pocket tens. He led out OOP with a larger than pot-size bet; I raised to put him all-in. I've seen so many over-raises with draws from so many players that I was convinced he had J10. Turned out he had AA, but he took quite a while to call -- afterwards he said he thought maybe I had KQ. I know this was a dangerous raise; I also don't know whether I would have made the same raise if our stacks were deeper. As it stood I only lost ~$12 on that hand.

I also suffered a bunch of out-draws, especially yesterday. A while back I had sworn off playing on Sundays as I felt like I got outdrawn an unfair amount; however logically I can't believe this would be the case so I've plowed through it... I may heed that thought again, as even if it's untrue I think I'm more prone to tilt on Sundays due to this nagging thought in the back of my brain.

I again lost in a set-over-set deal, this time with 77 on an A-7-10 flop. The 3-way pot got all in on this flop, where my set of 7's was up against a set of ten's and AK. Set over set statistically happens ~2/100 times; I can recall, in the past 60 or so days, losing at least 5 set-over-set's, and winning 1. I have played well over 1,000 hands in that time, though (don't know the exact number off the top of my head, but it's multiple thousands), so while it seems unlikely, statistically it's right in line. Totally sucks when it happens.

Down 4 buy ins over 2 days play... if my roll had been healthier to start I'd be able to stay up there; as it stands I started playing $0.10/$0.25 on the lighter side anyway, so the most prudent move is to head back down.

I played down there last night, and while the play at .10/.25 is far from brilliant, the play at .05/.10 is amazingly horrible. Best example (and unfortunately I couldn't be a part) is when UTG shoves all-in for ~$5 (mind you, there is fifteen cents in the pot prior to this!!!). What two hands call him? 9-10 soooted, and KQo!!! And the best part: guess what UTG was holding? 8-6o!!!

Gotta love shoving a half-a-buy-in to try to collect fifteen cents in blinds! Key to these tables is to not get too fancy too often, and for me - play over 2-3 tables and wait for mostly premiums and position plays.

Back to the basics...

dimes and quarters

I've moved to the $0.10/$0.25 tables now. I'm not multi-tabling yet. Poker Tracker with PokerAce HUD is awesome. It's even made me realize how static my play often is. I'm trying to mix up my game a bit more now, while I've also tightened up my starting requirements and have become more aggressive with pre-flop raises and raising vs calling post-flop. All this has added to more success.

At .05/.10 I was seeing approx. 35% of the flops; I've reduced that down to 25-30% now (depending on circumstances of course) and have had much beter success: too many questionable limps was a big leak. The .10/.25 tables are generally more aggressive anyway, as most hands don't go to the flop without a raise; limping is rarely an effective strategy (I don't limp unless I'm willing to call a standard raise - say with a hand like 33-88).

When I looked at my stats for the previous 30 days, it was quite clear that the higher level was much more profitable: in 30 days I was up approx $45 in .05/10 (where I played over 95% of my hands), while I was up over $100 at .10/.25 in the other 5% of hands I played. That made me much more interested in sticking around at the higher tables.

Sure, it ain't $50/$100, but it's still a step in the right direction.

I've been so psyched with my play over the past couple months: my confidence has skyrocketed, and it just feels like I'm playing better than I ever have (as the steady bankroll increase has shown). Tournaments have lost their attraction for me (I'd much prefer a cash game), as I believe I'm a MUCH better cash game player.

I also completely cut out live limit playing. I wasn't a very good limit player. Though it would be interesting to play again now as I feel my current style would be quite effective at the local limit tables. Limit just seems like much higher variance than I care for: I'd prefer to drive the extra 35 minutes and go for NL if I'm playing live.

I plan on posting some general goals for 2008 soon.