nothin'. Just - nothin'

Wow. Poker has been SO far out of my radar of late.

I'm in school to become a chemical dependency counselor, and that plus working full-time puts a serious dent into poker time. I fell out of love with online poker, and getting up to the local casino has been tough. I've been doing homework and reading most evenings I'm not in class - yes, that includes weekends. The last time I did go and play, I was too preoccupied with a test I had on Monday that I played like crap.

Class is over until January 5 now. I've got plans for this Saturday, but I'm hoping the next week to get up there. I'd honestly like to earn some money: what I won over the spring and summer ended up paying for my first 3 quarters of school (among other things). I just paid tuition for my 4th quarter, so it seems only right to head up there and win that back too :)

I miss playing, too. And hope I'm not too rusty what with 3 months since I was playing at least weekly...

Gross suckout

I'm playing a freeroll put on by seattlepokeropen.com. Super tight, in the top 5 or something. 30/60 blinds. I raise to 180 in EP with KT0 (tight enough that it should get some respect). Loosest player at the table (I barely cover him) calls.

FLOP:
Th 5d 7s

I bet 300, he min-raises to 600. If he hit a set, then so be it, but otherwise I'm likely ahead. I shove. Pause....call.

For your viewing pleasure:

Not so sure I put my tournament live on the line with 2 overs and a backdoor draw.

He proudly states "YES! 2nd suckout of the day" afterwards. I love players like this at the cash games! :)

no time...

I've had like no time for poker lately. I've in class 3 days a week, and doing homework most of the other 4. My Saturday class is over this week, though, so I'll have a little lighter of a load shortly. Still, I doubt I'll be playing until likely 11/1 (plans the next two weekends).

Feels odd to take such an extended break - I was playing literally every week for months now. Miss it, miss the extra cash. Looking forward to getting back into the action whenever I can.

Raising for a free card

Some of this stuff may be 100% standard, 'everyone knows this sort of thing' strategy. I feel like my poker game has just taken some big strides forward, and a lot has to do with implementing specific techniques at the table. Some I found by trial / error, some I've picked up from watching Live at the Bike, some who knows...

Here's one I heard talked about on LATB, and subsequently put to good use in my game:

If I have an open ended straight draw or a duble-gut-shot on the flop, I have 8 outs. Using the rule of 4, I have about a 32% chance of hitting my hand by the river. However, that's only when I get to see both the turn and the river. Often, however, if an early position player bets the flop, and you raise in position, if EP calls, he'll often check the turn to you, fearing you will raise again if he bets.

Example: from this weekend's $1/$3 action:

MP raises to $10, I call OTB with J8o

FLOP: 69T rainbow.

MP bets $15.

Here, any 7 or any Q gives me a straight. I want to get to the river, but don't want to call a big turn bet. I raise to $45. MP pauses, then calls. He's likely got overs (AK/AQ) or a meduim-strength pair.

TURN: [69T] 4

MP checks. I'm more than happy to take a free card, so I check behind.

RIVER: [69T4] Q

MP bets $40, I raise to $100. MP calls.

MP shows QT for a rivered 2-pair; I show my straight.

Raising in position like this is a great way to often get your opponent to check the next street. Raise the flop, oponent checks the turn = free river; raise the turn, opponent checks the river = free showdown.

Calling down light

Tulalip $1/$3

Villain: MP, $700. I played with him 2 weeks ago... he seems like a solid player, made some big calls; he caught perfect on one big hand to more than double up. He's bet me out of 3 pots in the last half hour, and I don't know whether he had anything or not (though his "nothing" was likely better than mine once). He has yet to get caught in 1 bluff in about 3 hours of play, though I can't imagine he's got a hand each time he fires.

Hero: BB, $550. Typical loose/aggressive post-flop image (more passive pre-flop: I'm willing to see a lot of flops against passive, predictable opponents). I do go out of my way to get into pots with a wide range of hands when against another deep stacked opponent.

1 limper, Villain raises to $15, folds to Hero who calls with As 3h (limper folds).

Pot: $37
FLOP: 835 rainbow

Hero checks; Villain bets $25, Hero calls.

I make a loose preflop call with far-out hopes of some sort of 2-pair/wheel hand. On the flop, I'm making a very light call: I'll often do this on a dry board whenever I get even a piece of the flop, just to see what happens on the turn. If a blank comes and he checks behind, there's a chance he's missed. Here, there's also the possibility of hitting an ace and getting into a big pot against AK/AQ.


Pot: $87
TURN: [835] 9

Hero checks, Villain checks.

I'm actually feeling OK about my hand here: I don't believe he raises with below TT, and he'd bet an over pair here. Obviously, bottom pair is weak, but I think I'm good here.


Pot: $87
RIVER: [8359] 4

Hero checks, Villain bets $45.

I replay the hand, and I can't put him on anything: if this is an over pair, he's playing it very strangely, especially by checking the turn: he's not shown himself to be a tricky player. Highly unlikely the 4 helped him; slight possibility he has 67, but he's not yet to have shown himself to mix it up enough to add that to his range.

I say to him, "Do you ever bluff?" He kind of shrugs his shoulders. And then I either see something flash in his facial expression, or I'm making things up in my head to justify a call. Which is it? Who knows. I'd like to think I did see something, but I can't be certain. I spend most of my time when watching big hands observing those in the pots, trying to discern whether they're confident, strong, weak, scared, etc, just by watching their faces and body language. Is it doing me any good? I'm not sure.

Hero calls. Villain says "Good call," and turns over AQo. I table A3o and take down a $170 pot with bottom pair. He's shocked, he says, "How did you call with that?" and got some "Wow's" from the rest of the table.

How did I do that? Combination of board texture, a possible read, and partially instinct. He either had what he had, or a hand like JJ. I was getting better than 3-to-1 on the $45 bet, and decided that there was at least a 25% chance he was bluffing: if he bluffs 25% of the time, a call here is exactly break-even; if he bluffs 26%, it's barely +EV.

This was the 2nd time I called him down light: on a mostly similar board just after he sat down, I was in position and called a flop bet and a river bet with pocket deuces; I was wrong that time (he'd made an odd raise with QT and hit a T on the turn - and checked it too).

I'm quite happy what this will do for my table image. Once they see this hand, I'm hoping they will be less likely to try to bluff me.

I've been playing a lot of poker lately. I play approx 8-14 hours/week (1 long session most Saturdays). 6 months ago if I had less than top pair on any board, I'd not have thought twice about folding. Not the case today: I use my loose/aggressive post-flop image and scare cards to make bets and raises, and I use my reads and poker instincts to make light calls. I'm not always right, and honestly I've not kept close enough tabs to know whether my light calls have been profitable or not. That would be hard to quantify anyway. It is fun when I'm right though :)

Sometimes AK is enough, part 2

Tulalip $1/$3

Villain: $400; very very aggressive player, usually a $3/$5 player. I've played him a few times. I wonder sometimes if he's just aggressive for aggressiveness sake (which also makes me wonder if I sometimes have that tendency)

Hero: $500; LAG. Really mixing it up tonight, probably gambooling a bit more than I ought to. IM(not so)HO villain and I are the 2 best players at the table, and while I usually try to avoid playing really good players, I'll sometimes get involved because: a) it's fun and challenging, and b) sometimes you think you have the best hand.

Villain raises to $15 in LP; Hero looks down OTB at AhKh. I don't want to build a huge pot against him, so I decide to just take a flop. Blinds fold.


POT: $34
FLOP: J29 rainbow (one heart)

Villain bets $20; Hero calls.

I decide to take one off here for two reasons: 1) he c-bets almost every flop he raises, and 2) I'm in position, and can try to represent on the turn. I'm thinking if an 8 or K comes off I can represent a straight. Of course, if an A or K come off I'm probably good, plus I do have backdoor flush possibilities. My call, too, could shut him down if he's missed, and allow me perhaps a free river. And, too, sometimes AK is good enough for a showdown.


POT: $74
TURN: [J29] 5 (no heart)

Villain bets $50. Hero calls.

I watch him watch the board, and count out his bet, and pick up something. At least I think I do. There was a look on his face as he pushed his chips that was different than the confident/cocky look he usually has. I don't think he has anything, so I call.


POT: $174
RIVER: [J295] 5

Villain stares at the board for a beat, cuts out $75, and pushes it into the pot with 2 hands. I grab a stack of $100 from my stack, and - I kid you not - he grimaced, ever so slightly. I was considering calling before the grimace, but now I'm leaning more that way. I'm not sure how capable he is of giving false tells, so I'm not ready yet, but I count out the $75, and move it away from my stack (but not forward, AND not over the commitment line). I'm looking at the pot and the board, going back through what he might have, but as I moved the chips away from my stack, he says "You're good," so I immediately push the chips out front, and he mucks.

I had seen him muck more than once that evening after an opponent called a river bet, so I was pretty sure that he would do just that again. I thought I'd be OK at showdown, too. I never have to turn my cards over since he mucked. His wife was seated right next to him and she said, "Why'd you muck?" to which he replied "Because if he can call me there he has to have me beat." I stack the chips, and as the next hand is being dealt I ask him if he had a pair, and he said of course.

Take-away: don't muck your hand until:
1) your oponent shows you the winner,
2) your oponent has mucked, OR
3) the dealer is pushing chips to you.

Don't forget who you're playing against

Villain: $250. Been at the table about 30 minutes; don't think she's folded a hand preflop yet. She appears to be not very experienced (bet sizes, chip/card handling, general demeanor, etc), very very passive.

MP: $350. Very, very aggressive. Usually a $3/$5 player.

Hero: $700. Typical playing for me (LAG). Not happy MP is here, but happy Villain (and her friend) is.

MP raises to $10. Hero calls with 2c 2s. Villain calls.

POT: $30
FLOP: 256 rainbow.

Villain bets $15. MP raises to $40. I think about raising, but I want Villain to come in, so I just call. Villain calls.


POT: $150
TURN: [256] 9

Villain bets $40. MP folds. I push. Villain thinks for a half a minute, then calls.


POT: $550
River: [2569] J

Hero shows a set of 2's. Villain shows a set of 6's.

I've rarely folded sets on rainbow boards. There is a possible straight, sure, but I really don't think she's leading out on a draw. The more I think about this, though, the more obvious this should have been that I was way behind. It was obvious to the entire table just how aggressive MP is, and she wasn't the least bit afraid to bet right into him twice...I don't see what else this besides 55 or 66. Slight possibility of an over-pair, but I could only see this being AA with her leading out twice (especially twice into a raiser and a caller).

If I had stopped and taken a minute or two to replay the hand, to figure out what she would lead out into two aggressive players, I would have pinpointed that hand to 55 or 66, and saved myself some money. Instead, because I had seen her show QQ after leading into a rag flop, I simply assumed that must be what it was again.

Getting - and using - information

Tulalip $1/$3

ME: UTG+1; $700. I've been nicknamed "Table Captain" now by more than one opponent. I don't think it's meant as a compliment, but it's leaning towards true: I am the guy driving the action; I'm giving a lot of action, I'm getting a lot of action; I'm raising a lot. It's easy to do at a loose/passive table.

Button: $300. Typical player: passive, bets when he has it, checks when he doesn't.

I'm dealt 2 black aces, and make my standard raise to $12. This has been my opening raise with no limpers all night, no matter what my position or what I'm raising with. Folds to button who calls (surprising that no one else calls at such a passive table); blinds fold.

Pot: $28
FLOP: Ks Kh Kd

What an interesting flop. This is a way ahead / way behind (WA/WB) situation: either he's got any pair/combination of cards with no K and I'm so far ahead it isn't funny, or he's got some Kx combination and I'm crushed.

I can't check here; I lead out for $20. Button calls.


Pot: $68
TURN: [Ks Kh Kd] 2c

I have no clue where I'm at... again WA/WB. I decide to check for pot control. Button checks behind. Is he slow playing? I really don't know. I do know, however, that I don't want to play a big pot here if I can help it.


Pot: $68
RIVER: [Ks Kh Kd 2c] Ts

I can't check here, because almost any full house is paying me off. If I bet and he pushes, I figure I can safely fold.

I bet $50. Button insta-pushes, and I feel kind of sick. I look at him, and say "This is just sick," then I turn my hand over. I didn't muck yet, I just turned it over to get his reaction. Yes, this is perfectly legitimate for cash games - though you may want to verify in your specific card room before trying this.

So after I turn my hand over, the button looks at my cards and says "Oh, you're good." He looked so instantly dejected that, if this is an act trying to get me to call, he deserves to be paid off.

So even though I had planned on folding to a push, I have to go with my read here. I put my chips into the pot, he turns over ATo; I show my aces and rake in a big pot on an oddly scary board.


Morals of the story:
1) Use whatever information you get, from whatever - legitimate - technique you can use. I was willing to fold here: I only had $80 invested, and it was another $220 or so to call. This would often be an easy fold, getting about 1.5:1 here with the small full against a player who never bluffs in this spot: he truly believed he had the best hand; AND

2) If your opponent turns over their cards, don't talk, don't flinch, don't move, don't do anything. If he hadn't looked obviously dejected, let alone saying aloud "You're good," I would have easily folded, and he would have won the hand.

Sometimes AK is enough at showdown

Tulalip $1/$3

HERO: UTG+1, $600. I'm in for $300, so I'm not too far up. Passive table - mostly loose preflop, tight/passive postflop. Perfect environment for me; I love it!
VILLAIN: UTG, $200. Literally first hand at the table; why he decided to come in UTG is beyond me (Tulalip allows you to come in behind the button and not have to post). I've played him a number of times; he likes to create an early, aggressive, run-over-the-table image.


UTG Raises to $15.
HERO looks down at AKo. This could a re-raising, but in this early of a position I'd rather just call and see a flop. Everyone else folds.

POT: $33
FLOP: 828r

UTG Bets $25.
HERO calls.

If he's got a pocket pair I've still (more likely than not) got overs. Granted this is often more of a limit poker play, but I'm OK with taking one off here to see a turn. He looked very uncomfortable when I called. Doesn't look like he has anything.


POT: $88
TURN: [828] T

UTG Bets $75.
HERO calls.

He got a very, very determined look on his face after the turn card came off. If I could have read his mind I believe I would have read "If this guy has something I need to keep showing strength so he'll go away." Still doesn't look like he has anything.


POT: $238
RIVER: [828T] 5

UTG looks kind of disgusted, says "Check." I consider the fact that we may have the same hand, and a bet here could move him off of it. Instead, I decide to check behind. Why? Sometimes AK, on a rag board with an aggressor who obviously missed everything, is good enough to show down. With the size of the pot, if he really did have any pair he'd likely call anyway.

I decide to take the safer route in case my read was way off and save a hundred bucks. I also considered betting so I didn't have to show my hand, but I liked what it might do to my already loose/crazy image that I'd call this guy down with nothing but the nut-no-pair. I was prepared to call his bet here, too, even if he went all-in: I was fairly certain that we were at least holding the same hand.

I turn over AK; UTG turns over AQ and throws it into the muck, and shakes his hand as the pot comes my way.

Should've stacked him

Tulalip $1/$3.

UTG - new player, won first three hands he's played (this is his 4th), $300
HERO (OTB): Playing tighter than usual, table is a little too crazy to play super-lag, $400

UTG raises to $10. Folds to me, and I call with 8d 8c. SB calls.

FLOP: Jh 2h Jd

SB checks. UTG bets $20. I just don't think he's on a jack, and I can represent a flush if a heart falls, so I call. SB folds. Pot: $70.

TURN: [Jh 2h Jd] 8s

Miracle card. UTG bets $40. I take a little time, and smooth-call. Pot: $150

RIVER: [Jh 2h Jd 8s] Qd

UTG: Checks. I take some time, and bet $125. UTG SNAP-calls. I turn over the boat, and he mucks.

Moral of the story: Raise the turn. If UTG really has a jack, he's going to call most any raise. If he doesn't, then he won't put any more money in on the river anyway. If I made a smallish raise to $100 on the turn, he'd likely have called anyway, then the pot would be the right size for me to stick the rest in on the river, which he likely would have called. He likely had AJ there.

I missed out on about $100 by getting fancy and slow-playing my boat. I almost never slow-play, so I'm not sure what I was thinking.

ooops...

Tulalip $1/$3 game.

As my last post was about following my gut (thanks for the correction riggs), here's one where I followed my gut almost to my own detriment...

I'd been moved to this table about an hour ago. A guy 2 to my right was seemingly raising/re-raising every 3rd hand, playing super aggro. After a while I'd decided at some point I'd make a stand against him, as there's no way he's getting that many hands. No way. I just hadn't been able to even closely connect with the board, and I hadn't found a hand yet that I'd be able to intelligently call a 3-bet shove (which he did liberally) so re-popping was often out of the question.

Villain had approx. $250 (he'd recently lost a hudge chunk of his stack in a set-over-set matchup - it was close to a $1K pot). I had just about $300.

MP raises to $10. Villain calls, I call on the button with 5d 7d (one of my favorite types of hands).

FLOP: Td 7h 6s

MP checks
Villain bets $25
HERO: calls (middle pair in position is worth seeing a turn here)
MP folds

Pot: $80
TURN: [Td 7h 6s] 4d

Villain bets $50

I don't think he has anything. Why? I just don't know... I think he plays 2 overs the same way here, especially since he's bet me out of every pot we've been in together, which likely makes me look weak/passive. I've got a big draw here, though, so I'm going with it. I "tank," count out chips, and announces all-in. Villain insta-calls. 'Ooops,' I think to myself.

RIVER: [Td 7h 6s 4d] 5c

Villain shows Kc Ks
HERO shows 5d 7d for two pair.

Who would've thunk he had a real hand this time? Granted, I had a HUDGE draw (9 diamonds, 2 7's, 3 5's, 3 trey's, 3 8's = 20 outs), but still...

Follow your read

One thing I've been working on is following my read, even when I can't say what my read is based on. I've played a lot of cash game poker over the past 3 months - at least once / week, and most every session was at least 10 hours (most closer to 12-15 hours). I've gotten a lot better in general, and more specifically I've gotten much better at following my reads.

Game: private home-game, 6-handed $0.50/$0.50 NLHE, $100-$200 buy-in. We've got over $1,000 on the table. Deep stack poker is awesome. Play has been very aggressive.

SB: $400, possibly the most aggressive player at the table. This is the first time I've played with him (the rest of the table I've played with twice before).

Me OTB: $280. I've been picking my spots carefully, made some good plays that worked, made some good plays that were picked-off... having a great time, too.

CO limps in, I limp with Q2o. I did this because: a) I'm on the button, and I play almost anything 6-handed on the button with no raise, and b) there's a running joke on this email discussion list we're all on that claims Q2o to be the nuts. SB raises to $2.50, CO folds, I call.

FLOP: 929 rainbow.

SB bets $6. I call. Why? Something in his mannerism, or the way he tossed his chips, or something else, tells me he doesn't have anything. I consider raising, but this player loves to 3-bet, so I just call and hope to get to a showdown.

TURN: [929] 7x

SB bets $15. I call.

RIVER: [9297] Jx

SB bets $35. I take some time, count my chips, take a look at the SB, count the $35 out, take a look at the small blind. I just don't think he's got anything. My motto lately has been to pick my spots, and if I was following that I'd have folded preflop, or at least on the flop. But I also need to follow my reads, and if I think I've got the best hand I'm at least calling.

So I do call. SB says "Nice call. Ace high." I turn over Q2 and collect a $148 pot with a pair of ducks.

Am I writing this to brag? Only partly ;)

My point is if you have a read, follow it. Or, more specifically, if I have a read, I'm following it. I often cannot put my finger on what it is that gives me the read I have, so I guess that's the next step. But there are times when I'm playing where I get an almost overwhelmingly strong sense of exactly what's going on in the hand. That's what happened here.

It's a feeling I can't describe, but it just kind of 'makes sense,' in a similar way that great music just 'sounds good.'

Short break

After the past 3 months of playing once/week up at Tulalip (with 2 weekends I played Friday and Saturday), I've got an off weekend. I'm down in Orlando visiting my grandparents. Grandpa has pancreatic cancer, and is likely to start treatments in about 2-3 weeks. If the PET scans he just had done are not promising, though, well....he may skip the treatments and just go when it's time.

What a helluva scary decision that must be to make.

Anyway...

So normally, this time of the week I'd be at the tables (I start around 3-4pm Pacific and go for 1-16 hours typically). The last break I took was when I was running really bad, and the break was good for me to examine my game.

This time, though, I've been on fire. Yea, luck-boxed into some pots. But I'll tell ya - I feel better and more confident about my game today than I ever have. I fell like I've finally, after all these years, finally I've begun to flourish into a real poker player.

I need to work on some aspects of my game. I know I need to come up with a physical routine at the tables, as I know I give off some physical tells to observant players. I need to continue to work on my value betting. And I'd like to get to the level where I'm trying to misrepresent my hand to my oponent...

These will be necessary for me to be sucessful once I step up to $3/$5. The $1/$3 game (with the $200 buy in) is playing a lot like the old 2-5 game was playing, just not quite as big. It's really the perfect game for where I'm at though: can beat the players, can beat the rake, can build a bankroll, can have losing sessions that won't be psychologically devastating... you know, moving up may not happen for quite a while.

I'd like to make more money at the game, and I will take a shot at some point, but for now - I'm earning enough to pay for school and books, and to sock some away for when I"m in my poorly paid internship next summer. Yea, I want to step up, but my bankroll would be in jeopardy after 1 really bad night. I can't jeopardize my poker career just by taking a shot at the next level. I'm not worried about the play there: I'm confident I will do fine at that level. At this point, though, one $3/$5 downswing would hurt the roll and my psyche too much...

I'd love to be at the tables... as much as I'm loving the vacation, I've got two things I'm looking forward to next weekend: Friday, Angel and I are going to a play then a late dinner (and perhaps dessert at my place), then Saturday - back up at the tables.

I run damn good

Tulalip $1 / $3

Hero ($1300). LP. Last 1/3 table going, and I've been playing well, running well, and playing against idiots who apparently hate money.

SB ($600). Straight-forward player; won a huge pot with quads a while back. Nothing fancy, typical player.

UTG ($25). Tulalip bartender who's been waiting and waiting for the nuts, blinding off and chasing stuff.

Bunch of limpers, so I decide to see a flop with QTo. Shut up, it's a weak ass hand, I know, but more likely than not everyone will miss, I'll bet, everyone will fold, money comes my way. Been doing it all night.

Pot: $18
FLOP: Jc Qc Th rainbow.

Unlikely AK is out there, as it's been limped. SB bets $12, UTG pushes all -in. I've got top two, and don't want any more flush draws in there, so I bump it to $75. Folds to SB who calls.

Pot: $190
TURN: [Th Jc Qc] Tc

SB checks. I bet out $150. The flush got there, so I hope he's got the nut flush. When the SB calls, it smells like a flush. Sweeeeet!

Pot: $490

RIVER: [Th Jc Qc Tc] Qd

Kind of an unfortunate river, as if he had a Q we're now chopping. SB checks. I fire out $250 (in green $25 chips). SB shows 7c 8c and folds. Apparently, he was looking for the 9c (or was hoping I'd stop betting and that his flush was good). UTG turns over AK for the flopped straight (well played, and no - she wasn't looking for a limp reraise). I turn over QT for da boat.

$490 in a limped pot. not bad, not bad at all....

The stuff that dreams are made of

Tulalip $1/$3

Hero: MP, $900. Playing aggressively, making moves, pushing the table around. Very much a LAG image. Even though when the big pots come up I almost always have the goods, people continue to think I'm just making moves on them.

Cut-Off: 1st time playing poker in a casino. Luck-boxed into a few medium-size pots. $240 (up from $100).

BB: Young kid. No read. Not involved in more than a couple pots over the last hour or so. Casual player. $180.

UTG raises to $12. I look down at 2 black aces, and I bump it to $35. CO calls. BB takes a few seconds, and announces all-in. Folds to me. It's spread-limit, so I know the betting is capped, but I still announce "All-In." Dealer tells me it's capped, so I say I call and am all-in blind before the flop. CO calls. Dealer pulls money in, and I put out $200 before the flop, CO pushes his chips into the pot.

I have no idea what the flop turn or river were. Nobody improved.

BB showed pocket deuces (?!); CO shows AhQd (?!?!).

Insanity. $180 with 22. $240 with AQ0. I love this game!!!

Is it sustainable?

Over the last 2 months I've booked pretty big wins overall. My sessions are typically approx 12 hours long, and I've been averaging about 17 big blinds per hour.

I wonder how sustainable this is, though. The games are playing bigger (the bigger buy-in level and the $1/$3 structure had a much bigger effect on the game than I had anticipated), and my bankroll is stable enough that I am very very comfortable playing for big pots and making large bets if I think I'll earn the pot.

The last two weekends were hudge wins ($1400 and $1555). I know some of it is the luck of the draw, but some has got to be my play: I've become much better at reads, and playing position aggressively. But I wonder how much is luck, and how much is me. There are players who I view as better than me that I've seen consistently walk away from the tables with much less profit.

I guess only time will tell which is the case, but I'm feeling really great about my game: I feel like I'm able to put my opponents on ranges pretty accurately, I've become very good at figuring out what I think my opponent thinks I have, I've become able to sniff out weakness, I'm able to use scare cards to bet my opponents off of likely winning hands...

I hope it's not just ROT...

On another note: while I had been expecting to step up to $3/$5, I'm not going to do that any time soon: the $1/$3 games are playing big enough that I'm sticking there for a while. Plus, and even though I'm doing well, losing 3 buy ins in an evening is possible in any game (I always come prepared with 3 full buy-ins), which in the $3/$5 game would mean $1500. I'm not sure I'm psychologically OK with the possibility of losing $1500 in one night. I'm OK with $600, but I fell like I'd be playing too scared. Maybe not, though, we'll see. In all honesty my bankroll is still not big enough to play comfortably there.

Aces never win...

Tulalip $1/$3 "No limit" game.

Part 1:
It's deep into the session; the player to my right is a huge fish with a $1,100 chip stack (don't ask). I'm sitting on the button with around $900, and am doing everything in my power to get into pots with the fish. Dude in the BB is a new player, very casual player, with about $250.

MP limper, Fish McFish limps, I limp with Ks Js, SB completes, BB raises to $20. MP folds, Fish calls. My hand is pretty weak, but instead of thinking of this as 2 broadway cards, I'm playing this as a suited 1-gapper; in other words, I'm not looking to hit just top pair - I need straights and flushes and two pair for this hand to be worthwhile. If Fish mucked, so did I: I was looking for reasons to get into pots with him. He had about $1600 just a couple hours back, and he's been slowly leaking that money around the table; I want my share!

3 to the flop, $60 in the pot.

FLOP:
K2J rainbow

BB bets out $50. Fish folds (oh well). I raise to $125. BB hesitates, then calls.

TURN:
[K2J] 5

BB goes all-in. I call.

River:
[K2J5] J.

BB turns over AA. I show KJ for the full house.

Easy game.

------------------------------

Part 2:
I'm UTG with AA, and I raise to $15. Guy in the cut-off (thinking player, aggressive) puts in $10. He didn't realize there was a raise, so then he just tosses in another $5 chip. Button calls, BB calls. 4 to the flop, $60 in the pot.

FLOP:
Qh 5h 8s

BB checks. I bet $75 (lotta flush chasers at this level, want to price them out, as I don't have the ace of hearts). Cut-off raises all-in for $100 more. Folds to me, I call.

Turn and river are meaningless.

I turn over aces for one pair. Cut off turns over QQ for flopped top set.

So freakin' rigged...

Big Score

Had my biggest one night win Saturday night at the $1/$3 Tulalip casino game. At one point I was up to $1800, but ended up cashing out at $1625, for a profit of $1425. Brilliant poker playing?

Not at all. I was watching one of the Live at the Bike episodes late Friday, and one of the announcers called it out just right: he said NL hold 'em is a game of mistakes. The object is to make as few mistakes as you can, and capitalize on the mistakes of your opponents. That's pretty much what I was doing. I'd catch players over-playing medium-strength hands, and just take their money. Here's a great example:

I'm in middle position with 7h 8h, and I limp in. Player on the button pops it to $20. It folds around to me, and I call. At this point, we're both pretty deep for these levels: I've got about $600, and he's got about $400. As a general rule, I use the 10-times rule to decide whether to call with hands like small pocket pairs and low-mid suited connectors: if the player has 10 times the amount of his raise (and, of course, I do too), and I think he'll pay me off if I hit, then I'll call. If not, then it's not worth it.

I also know, too, that this is quite a large raise for this player, and the last time he made this large preflop overbet he showed jacks, so I have an idea right off the bat where he's at.

2 players, pot is $44.

FLOP:
Kd 8c 8s

I lead out for $30. He pops it to $100. I smooth-call, and plan on leading any turn. He says something like "Great, I've been trying all night to avoid you, and here we are." Whatever; unless he has K8 or KK I'm good..

TURN:
[Kd 8c 8s] 2c

Pot is $244, he's got about $300 left. I bet $100, he goes all-in. Of course, I call.

RIVER:
[Kd 8c 8s 2c] a meaningless river card

I show 7h 8h for trip 8's. He shows Tc Td for 2 pair. And for some reason he goes off for about 5 minutes on how I can call with that garbage. I ask him if he plays suited connectors and he says, "not like that." I say something to the effect of him obviously being a limit player, which he didn't take too kindly to.

Thing is -- I'd probably play AK just as fast, and I'd expect him to as well. I can't tell you how shocked I was when he didn't have a king there. Insanity.

------------------

So for the next hour this guy is steam-raising and playing super-aggro. I don't mind; if I don't have a hand I get out of the way, all the while he's building up a nice stack from the rest of the table.

Then, round two:

After a couple limpers, I raise to $15 from middle-late position with 3c 4c. I'm raising often, but not excessively, and I'm mixing up what I'm raising and limping with, so this fits in to the script perfectly (see this post). Same dude calls me from the button. Blinds fold.

Pot is $40.

FLOP:
[Td 4h 3s]

Not a bad flop, eh?

I bet $30. He calls, and gives a little speech: "You'd better have something this time." I don't know what this means, except that he must've hit part of that flop or has a pocket pair. TT he'd for certain raise here.

TURN:
[Td 4h 3s] 3d

Well, I've got a likely lock on the hand. I don't get fancy: I want to build a pot, so I stick some money in there. He already told me on the flop he liked his hand, so the 3 is likely not going to affect his hand quality, so he should be able to call here too. I bet out $50. He comes over the top and goes all in for another $250 or so. Massive bet. Massive.

I, of course, call.

RIVER:
[Td 4h 3s 3d] 9h

I show 3c 4c for a full house. He shows 3h 5h for trip 3's. He then gets an attitude again, saying "You raised with 3c 4c?" I remind him that not only did he call preflop with 35o, but that he called a flop bet with bottom pair. He then goes on like a doofus saying "I can't beat you, I just can't beat you can I?" He says a few other rude things as he's standing up to leave. I ask him if he's going to the ATM, because we'll save his seat for him.

That may have been a little over-the top, but the table got a laugh from it.

Bye bye Bodog?

Reading this article on Forbes online, it sure sounds like Bodog may not be long for the world.

The tenor of the article makes it sound like FTP and Stars are in danger too, though I doubt that. I'm hoping the Bush administration yahoos decide to concentrate their efforts on real criminals over the next 6 months...

And for an expert comentary on the situation, check out this youtube video (no, it's not a rickroll!).

Raising with deceptive hands

Tulalip $1/$3

First off, kudos to Tulalip casino for upping the buy in to $200, and though they changed the big blind to $3 so you don't quite have 100 bb's, it's still a much, much, much better game!

I just lost a decent chunk of my stack to the player on my right with a sick river card. I went from about $250 down to $60. Don't remember the betting details, but I know the dude called my turn push with a flush draw and an over card, and the river spade killed my set.

I topped off back up to $200 before the next hand, when I'm dealt 4s 6s. I love these hands, especially in position, and I'd decided as a bit of randomness that this session, I would raise/re-raise black suited gappers and connectors, and just call/limp with red suited gappers/connectors. SO, in late position I raised this up to $10. I get called by the dude to my left who just rivered the flush; others fold.

Pot: $22
FLOP: 6d Qd 4c

BB checks, and I fire out $20; I thought about betting much more than pot to chase out the flush-draw, but I decided to gamble a bit and just play carefully if the flush came.

Pot: $62
TURN: [6c Qd 4d] 6d

The flush got there and I got my boat. I could fire out to represent the flush, but I decided to trap a little, and hope my opponent was on the flush draw (I was almost certain he was, and if he wasn't he wouldn't be able to call my bet anyway). I checked, and he bets out $30. I take my time, cut out my chips, stack them back up again, look at my opponent -- I'm trying my best to sell some disappointment, but trying not to ham it up too much. I kind of "reluctantly" call.

Pot: $122
River: [6c Qd 4d 6d] As

I need to lead out here, but I want it to look weak. I have $140 left, so I bet out $30 as a "blocking" bet. My opponent min-raises to $60. When I push all-in, it's only another $50 anyway, so he calls and turns over his king-high flush. I show the full house, and he says, "Oh my god. You raised with that crap?"

I love it!

Tulalip buy ins went up!

So the $1/2 game I play was typically a $50 min / $100 max buy-in. That's so shallow.

FINALLY, they've upped the buy-ins. While it's now a $1/$3, it's now a $100-$200 buy-in. It's doubtful the game will play any differently due to the $1 bigger big blind, but being able to start with $200 will make this game MUCH more entertaining!

Especially late at night. Last weekend I was crushing the game (was up to $600 on one buy), when we were down to 5 handed. Thing is, 1 guy had like $75, and the others were under that. 2 new guys sat at the table, but bought in for $50 and reloaded up to $50 after busting. Just not a lot of money on the table like that.

With the $200 max, you no longer start as a short-stack! And $100 min will get more money onto the tables right away! Woo-hoo-hoo!!!!!

Thanks, FTP

This, mind you, got all in preflop.

As soon as I saw the jack on the turn I opened up the "get chips" window. Thanks for the screw-job, FTP, now my ass hurts.

Playing big pots

I'm addicted to Live at the Bike, a webcast of cash games at the Bicycle Casino (they don't webcast anymore, but you can subscribe and watch the archives here), and just yesterday I was watching a show with Barry Greenstein doing commentary.

He was talking about the fact that his aim when playing no limit, is to play for big pots. "Duh" I guess you could say, but it helped me plug a little leak. I realized I was trying to win too many of the smaller pots, which meant I was at times losing too many chips with marginal hands. Don't get me wrong, I'm still playing some of the smaller pots, and I'll take stabs at pots when I don't think anyone's connected. But this last session, instead of 2 or 3 barrelling, I'd give up once I'm called if I don't improve.

I'm still getting in there with hands that can hit hard, and, quite honestly, hope to get lucky. Cases in point:

Hand 1:

After a couple limpers, I limp on the button with Ac 6c. With this hand, I'm not looking to hit top pair; I want something like 2 pair or, obviously, flushes or flush draws. The BB, a young woman I've played with a number of times, raises it up to $8. The cut off calls, and they both have enough money behind for me to take a chance with this hand, so I call too.

FLOP: Ad 6h 2h

BB bets $15. CO calls. I've got top 2 pair, so I raise it to $50, and both call. I can put one of them on a decent ace, and the other one on a likely heart flush draw.

TURN: [Ad 6h 2h] 6d

Well, I don't care if the flush gets there now, and it's likely the BB is happy with her 2 pair with a good kicker, so it's time to bet. The pot is almost $150, and I've got about $100 left, so when they check it to me, I just stick it all in there and hope they've got something they can go with.

BB calls, and the CO calls!

BB shows AJo, CO calls Ah 9h, so both are drawing dead. I don't remember the river, and I collect a pot over $350.


Hand 2:

Very early in the session, and I've been gambooling it up a bit to try to build my stack. I've gone up to $150 and now down to about $85.

I limp in with 7d8d UTG. There were a couple limpers, then the button bumps it up to $10. It's $8 more for me to call; it's a close-call whether it's worth taking a long-shot here (I'd like to have a little more in my stack for this to be over-all profitable, but it's early in the night and I'm willing to take some more chances to try to build a stack to play with). I call, hoping for a straight draw or flush draw.

FLOP: 7s 7c 2c

One of the few times I will check raise is right here. If I was holding two 7's, and flopped a set, I'd lead out. One in hand and 2 on the board I'm more apt to check-raise OOP. [edit: if stacks were deeper, I'd lead out, but this game is rarely very deep stacked so the check-raise is my favorite move here]

I check. Button bets out $35 (gross overbet to chase out a flush draw). I go all in for an additional $50. He takes some time, asks if I'm on a club draw, then calls with TT. Turn and river blank out, and I double through, while hearing from him how horrible my preflop call was.

I'm convinced I got the call here because I've gone all-in on draws, one that hit, and one that didn't get called but I showed. I want my opponents to think I'll put them to the test for their stack whenever they're in a pot with me (and I don't always have to have a hand to do it). My range is really wide, too, so there's a ton of flops that will connect with me big time.


Hand 3:
UTG raises to $6. Folds to button who raises to $16. I'm in the SB with AsQs; I'd rather not see a flop so decide to try to take it down here, and re-raise to $35. UTG folds, button calls.

His call and no raise here, I believe, means he's got AK or AQ. I could get into trouble here, but with no queen on the flop I'll have to bet to win.

FLOP: Js Jc 2d

If he's got AA/KK/QQ I'm screwed. I HIGHLY doubt he called the reraise with AJ/KJ. I'm sticking with my original read that he's on AK. Rainbow flop means no flush draw.

I go all in (approx $100). Button hems and haws a bunch, then folds AcKc face up. "Good fold," I said, "I definitely did not want to see an ace or a king." He asked what I had and I told him queens, but mucked my hand. The entire table seemed to believe me (I don't know why!).

This was one of the few times playing out of position can earn you the pot: if you go with your read, and you know the guy can't call an all-in here, you stick the chips in and win the pot.

you know you want one!

One of the funniest web page / product adverts I've read in a long time.

http://www.weaselballs.com/

Be sure to read the whole thing!

2 4 > JJ

Tulalip $1/2 session was uneventful: had some big hands, delivered some sick river beats, sucked out on the river a couple times. Ended a 10 hour session when the last $1/2 table broke with a $5 profit. Yipee. Incredibly, I was at the first $1/2 table started 10 hours prior. I like marathon sessions.

...which is why, on the way home, I stopped off for a $2-40 spread game that's usually super-soft at these hours. I quickly (20 minutes) am up to $300 (bought in for $200), and within a couple hours I'm up over $400.

Yea, it's that soft.

One player who is likely the best player at the table (big-time gamboooler too) raises to $8 UTG. 3 callers to me on the button with 2 4 offsuit. Imagining him with AA and a flop of A35, I decide to see a flop (bottom-feeding as others likely have broadway-type cards).

Boy, what a flop:

FLOP: 2 4 7 rainbow (woo-hoo!!!)
UTG bets $20. I raise $to $55, UTG calls.

TURN: [2 4 6 ] 9
UTG checks. I bet $40, UTG calls.

RIVER: [2 4 6 9] 5
UTG checks. I bet $40 UTG calls.

I announce 2 pair and show the duece four. UTG shows 2 jacks and practically cuts the felt he threw it down so hard. He walks away from the table to take a breather, and I hear him saying to no one in particular "I can't believe he calls with two f*@k'n four."

"Creative call," one of the players say to me.

I love what this does to my table image.

Grandpa update, preview of NL action this weekend

First off, Grandpa's prognosis was not very good: the doctor, who would not have bothered with the surgery if he didn't think he could do anything, ended up not being able to do much at all. The tumor is cancerous, and there was too much of it to be able to do anything surgically. What he did will allow Grandpa to not get jaundiced and be able to eat comfortably for a little while.

Next up is a visit with the oncologist, and a likely recommendation of a combination chemo/radiation treatment. The surgeon said this is most likely, and will in most case allow grandpa a few more years of fine, comfortable living.

He's still recouping, and was able to get up and walk around a bit yesterday. Likely will go home Monday or Tuesday, and begin chemo / radiation in about a month, once he's healed up a little from surgery.

Not the greatest news, that's for sure. Being that he's 82, though, the ability to likely get a few more comfortable years is not a bad thing.


I'm looking forward to some more NL fun Saturday. I want to take a shot at $3/5 soon, but I don't think this weekend is it. Maybe, we'll see - I'll make that call Saturday.

My goals this session are (besides great decision making): pot control, and value betting. I've been missing some value bets with winning hands, and I'd like to be able to get more out of them.

And I've gotten better about keeping pot sizes reasonable when holding good, but not great hands. This one is tough for me, though, because some of the typical Tulalip play is so bad I want to get as much as I can out of the hands; OTOH sometimes it's not necessary to bloat the pot with vulnerable holdings.

Roller Coaster

I've finally come to the understanding that my particular style of play is going to result in sometimes large swings, even within a session. I play a lot of speculative hands. I splash around in a lot of pots. I take stabs at a lot of pots. I give a lot of action. And, in return, I get a lot of action. When the big pots come around, though, I'm typically the one holding the goods.

Case in point:
Saturday night, Tulalip Casino. I'm on my 3rd $100 buy in due to pushing some big draws and bricking out. Standard.

I limp in on the button with 3h5h. 6 of us see the flop:

924, rainbow.

Checks to me, I just check (OESD? Sure, I'll take a free card, esp. with BB's propensity to check-raise).

Turn: [924] A

Boy, I'm hoping somebody's got an ace, maybe even an ace-rag 2 pair. Checks to me again, I bet $10. Both blinds call, others fold.

River: [924A] 6

Well, my straight just got bigger. I've got the nuts. Checks to me, I put in a bet of $30 ($40 in the pot). SB grudgingly calls. Then the BB min-raises to $60. I've got about $250 left; there is about $160 in the pot. He likes his hand, and I know he'll call a raise, only question is how much.

Though it's a little risky, I go in for the kill and OBFV: all in, baby!

SB, as expected, folds. BB, who is a very good player, one who I mostly tried to avoid at the table, thinks. And thinks. And thinks. He tanks for a long time. I'm tempted to call clock, but I don't want to scare him into folding. He's stared at the board long enough that he should see the possible straight, but isn't talking about that: he's worried about a slow-played set. Which of course means he hit two pair on the turn.

Eventually, he calls. I say "the nuts" and show, he flashes me A2 for top and bottom pair.

Total win from this trip: $659. I had almost $1K in chips at the table. The last $1/$2 game broke up around 7am. I was tempted to keep playing, and sit in the $3/$5 game, but after 15 hours at the table, I didn't think my decision-making abilities would be top-notch, so I decided not to try that.

I will be taking a shot at $3/5 sometime in the coming months. I've played 3/5 before, and was comfortable playing there. I'm just trying to be more prudent about my bankroll, because in all honesty I wasn't bankrolled to play 3/5. And even my 1/2 bankroll is slightly short because I keep using it to pay for things like tuition and school books and stuff (yes, I'm paying my way for my chemical dependency professional certification with poker winnings... some may call that slightly ironic). But once I hit a certain mark I'm going to take $600 and sit at the 3/5 table (that'd be 2 max buy-ins), and see how it goes.

On a side note, Grandpa goes in for surgery Tuesday at 2:30 EST. Think good thoughts.

aw crap

Grandpa's not doin' well. Been having stomache pains for months, and the idiot doctors couldn't find anything wrong. After MONTHS of this, yesterday he finally went to the Cleveland Clinic, where they examined him and found a tumor/mass on the pancreas, which is blocking the pancreatic vein.

Surgery is likely not an option due to his age.

Crap.

Beat of the night

Last Friday/Saturday session, Tulalip $1/$2. MP limps, Button limps, SB limps, I look at 2 red kings and bump it to $16 to go.

MP calls. Others fold

FLOP: 789 rainbow

I lead with $25.

MP goes all in for $20 on top. (silly me I should've looked at his stack before betting; maybe I did and my brain is cloudy as this was at like 4am when I'd been playing for 10 hours).

I make a crying call (thinking I'm up against a possible JT, but I've seen people go all-in here with A9 or even 2 overs as, again, so many people (including me at times) are more apt to put their oppoents on AK than a big pair).

MP Turns over T6o for a flopped straight. T on the turn gives me some hope, but the river bricks out.

I guess the right play is to fold there, but I've seen enough people overcommit there with AJ or A9 that I felt I had to call.

3rd week in a row I've played against this guy, and I've never seen him walk out of the casino with chips. Sure, you'll hit a big score with T6o from time to time, but when short stacked? I dunno, maybe it was a good play...

Work to do

In all honesty, as much poker as I've played in the past, I only recently began playing with any real regularity and seriousness. Sure, I've played online for a couple years now, but never at 'meaningful' stakes to either me or my opponents: online play is purely recreational, it's fun, it can be exciting, but it's never been about big profits etc.

RPT tournaments were my main poker experience 3-4 times/week for a year and a half or more. And there is a big difference between freeroll shortstack tournaments and live cash games.

For the past 3-4 months, I've been hitting up the $1/$2 game regularly - at least every other week, if not every week (Memorial day I was there for 2 days: nice $1200 score). My results are positive. The game is typically soft, though I make most of my money not by outplaying my opponents, but rather waiting for them to make mistakes and capitalizing on them.

I had a good Tulalip session Friday, but I am still obviously learning this game: I'm still a beginner. I'd say an advanced beginner, but a beginner nontheless. I can spot, with relative ease, who I should avoid at the table (w/o a monster holding), and who I should be able to take advantage of. I also play well post-flop, especially with people who are timid bettors: I get to steal enough pots that I can take some long-shot chances (like the T7s hand).

One unfortunate way I learn is by encountering pain. And that often comes in the form of making mistakes. While they suck, they are major learning experiences. And much more effective for me than reading a book. Experience is the best teacher, and I learn more from painful experiences than pleasurefull experiences.

I played in a private game Sunday night - 6-max deepstack ($100/$200 buy in, $0.50 blinds), with players obviously much more experienced than me (except perhaps one guy). I made what was likely the 2nd worst call of my life in a hand where my opponent obviously had AA. It was so obvious that I should have mucked my QQ preflop. Yes, that obvious. But I didn't. And it stung. Stung to the tune of $175.

Ouch.

Worst part? When I lead out (OOP) on a rag-board, I tell myself if he raises I must go away. What happens? He pushes, and I tank for a few minutes before calling.

DONK CALL!

I also learned a few more things:

- just because I'm playing deep stacked doesn't mean I can still play marginal hands to raises. Like KQo. I hit my queen I may not be good.

- just because my hand is a "good hand" doesn't mean that it's a good spot to make / call a raise/re-raise. I could've saved many a bet and waited for better opportunities.

- I've become so used to the relatively short-stacked $1/$2 game that the idea of "pot control" rarely crosses my mind; playing with 400 big blinds it should be crossing my mind.

- I don't like getting bullied around. I don't think anyone does. Which means I need to work on a counter-strategy against bullies. I can easily bully tight-passive $1/$2 players, but guys with 15 years of poker experience, who are used to the ultra-aggressive Microsoft games and taking advantage of the ultra-passive local games, I end up being the one getting bullied.


I got lots to work on. I've now got my poker roll completely separate from other money (though I'm still using my poker $$ to pay for a few things: classes, and contacts are my latest poker purchases), so I am easily able to disregard the "value" of the money and play much more optimally. And I need to balance my aggression: I'm oten either overshooting the mark (getting too aggressive), or playing too passively.

God I love this game.

Tulalip $1/2 - hands of the night

Good session last night. I got caught in many bluffs; gotta keep reminding myself not to bluff idiots who don't know how to fold.

Hand 1:

Villain (UTG, $125): very loose, has made a ton of really odd calls, even called a $35 (3/4 pot bet) river bet from me with ace high (and yes, he won the pot). He's been playing 90% of the pots, and seemingly ATC. The hand right before this one, he limped in 2nd position, Hero raised from position with QJo, Villain re-popped to $22; I folded.

Hero (hijack, $200): Not affraid to re-raise from position, takes stabs at a lot of pots (it's a brand new table so I'm not scared of keeping a wild, loose image... perhaps same thing UTG is doing?).

Villain limps, folds to me 9c 9s. I raise to $8. Button calls; Villain re-pops to $25. I say "two big limp/re-raise hands in a row? OK, I'll play." SB folds.

FLOP: 2d 5s 7h

Villain bets $25.
I just don't think he's got anything. AK at best, c-betting. I know, though, that I'm facing a big bet on the turn (He's only got about $75 behind), so this is either push or fold.
HERO: "All in"

Villain looks at his hand, shrugs, and says, "Ah, what the hell," and calls

Villain turns over QJo (?!?!?!?!?!). Turn and river brick out, and I collect a good size pot due to a good read and a very loose call.



Hand 2:
Villain (LP, $200): good, thinking player. Likes to talk strategy at the table (I just nod my head and say "uh-huh"...). Confident, aggressive.
Hero: (LP+1, $300): aggressive, caught in some bluffs trying to steal-raise on dry boards; I'm raising and re-raising a ton of pots, though, many successfully so I've got splashing-around-chips. I should have a fairly tricky image.

One limper, folds to Villain who pops to $8. I look down at 7s Ts, and decide to call; limper calls.

FLOP: Tc 7d 3s

Limper: Checks
Villain: Bets $16.
Hero: Raises to $45(hope he's got an overpair)
Limper folds.
Villain begins stacking up his chips like he's going all-in. He looks at me and says "Are you serious? I've got a huge hand here." I say "If you're gonna raise me just get it all in now." He asks if I'll call, and I say more than likely (meaning YES YES YES!)
Villain just calls.
(POT: ~$110)

TURN: [Tc 7d 3s] Th
Villain: looks at it and says "Should I check?" I say "What the hell do you have?" He says "All in"
HERO (of course) INSTA-calls...

Villain turns over 77 for 7's full of T's; Hero turns over T7 for T's full of 7's.

*whew* Had no idea I was behind there; I was sure he was sitting on KK there, esp after my flop raise and he says, "Are you serious?"

What's that saying about rather being lucky than good? I'll take both :)

poker & emotions

One thing I'm realizing is that I do not emotionally deal well with big swings. Oh sure, the up swings are wonderful, but the down swings -- I'm not good with them.

I start to question my abilities. I start to wonder whether I really am any good at this game, or if I just get lucky during winning sessions. Knowing that the majority of poker players are losing players, I wondered whether this fit me too, and if my stats for the past 9-10 months or so (only began tracking live NL play, leaving limit out right now) are just an anomaly.

About a month ago, I had an incredible poker weekend - 2 marathon poker sessions that netted me over $1K. At $1/$2. I kid you not.

But then the next 3 weekends were horrid. Awful. I ended up below where I was before memorial day.

This weekend, though, I did 2 back to back sessions Sat-Sun morning, and had to buy in 3 times to the $1/$2 game to end with a $24 profit. And the $2-$40 spread game I went to I crushed: started with $100, walked out with $460.

I hated that I spent 14 hours playing to only show a $24 profit. That almost feels like a loss...

The fact of the matter is that when I start losing, I start to feel bad about myself, and start questioning my play and my abilities. And when I'm winning, I start to wonder how this game can be so easy, and whether I should step up to $3/$5 even though I'm not properly bankrolled for that level.

I know neither of these two thoughts is correct. Yet my brain still goes there. So I guess part of me believes these thoughts. The brain lying to itself is a scary thing.

Logically, I understand 100% that you can't have winning sessions every time: nobody does except the UP and AP Super User accounts. But psychologically I get way too down on myself after losing sessions.

First step in any problem is to acknowledge the problem, so I'm part way there at least :)

...and again...

Got another Round 2 ticket tonight. Final hand was the funniest thing ever.

It'd been 3-handed for a while: 1 big stack, and other dude and I were switching between 2nd and 3rd in chips (big swings). I had just taken a big hit and was down to about 55,000. Button had about 130,000 and BB had about 150,000.

Last hand button goes all-in. I've got Ad 3h. It's probably a calling situation, but I'm willing to take my chances next hand and be the pusher rather than the caller.

Then, the funniest thing happens: The chipleader in the BB, who only covers the button by about 20K, calls!!

BB shows AKs, button shows A9o; king on the rainbow flop seals the deal.

I was very surprised that the bb called there as they both had me severely outchipped, and I would likely be all-in bad during one of these upcoming hands. Guess he saw his shot, and took it.

All I had to do to get into the top 2 was fold!

So I've got 2 shots at round 2. I also got down to the final 13 in another, and busted in 24th in another.

Finaly

Snicker if you want, laugh if you must, but I'm psyched about this. This weekend I final tabled like 4 of these things, never once using the all-in preflop for the first 5 hands to create a mega-stack. Due to the insanity surrounding these things, I hunker down and play super tight. But when I got the hands, I bet the hell out of them. At one point I went from 2nd to last in chips, to 15th in chips within 10 minutes and 4 hands.

I'm only like 2 steps away from a Main Event seat!

Forgot the cardinal rule

of tournament poker: Survival.

I took AQo up against the big stack (I'm #2). BB SNAP called my pot-size preflop raise.

*** FLOP *** [3c Jh Qc]

SB checks
gsw61515 bets 2,600
SB calls 2,600

*** TURN *** [3c Jh Qc] [Ah]
SB checks
gsw61515 bets 5,600
SB raises to 17,000
gsw61515: KT?
gsw61515: no way

editors note: when one correctly surmises one's opponent has the nuts, one should typically fold.

gsw61515: OK
gsw61515 raises to 20,335, and is all in
SB calls 3,335
gsw61515 shows [Ac Qs]
SB shows [Ks Tc]

*** RIVER *** [3c Jh Qc Ah] [Td]
gsw61515 shows two pair, Aces and Queens
SB shows a straight, Ace high
gsw61515: gg
gsw61515 stands up

I guess I was really hoping they called with AJ and hit the other two pair.

I always considered KT a sucker hand. Especially OOP, and esp. when you're the chip leader and 2nd in chips is in position with a preflop raise....

That being said, I still think that was a fold. Down to the final 10, almost at the FT, I'm dreaming of Vegas, and I think that was a clear fold in the hopes of surviving and getting my money in in a better spot.

I fold there, I still have an OK stack - smaller than average, but about mid-pack... Winner take all event like this, though, I kinda felt I'd have to take a chance that my fear was wrong and that they too turned 2 pair.

Guess I'm not playing in the WS0P this year....

Can you get away from this?

Tulalip $1/$2. Pretty standard; there's really only two of us who are doing much 'playing' while it seems other 4 are only playing their cards. I've got about $260, cut off has over $300. He seems to be a pretty standard tight/passive player.

5 limpers to me in the big blind. I look down at KK, and say "Put ten more dollars in everyone," and raise to $12. 4 callers.

Pot: $48

FLOP:
Kh 7s Th

SB checks. I bet $50. Folds to SB who calls.

TURN:
[Kh 7s Th] 8d

SB checks. I've got a weird stack size now: pot is ~$150, and I've got $200. I'm putting the guy on a flush draw, but I can't just bet the pot here, and 1/2 pot bet would leave me with barely a barrel on the river, so I figure my best move is all in here: the pot is big enough to take down now, and if he wants to chase a heart then he's paying a horrible price for it.

I say I'm all in, and SB insta-calls. I turn over top set, and he turns over J9o for a turned straight.

River is a meaningless Q (just gives him an even bigger straight).

Can I get away from this hand? I can't check-raise the flop with 2 hearts out there, can I? Do I under-bet the pot? Do I massively over-bet the pot to make most any draw not worth it to call?

freeroll fun

Killed a bunch of hours on FTP tonight, played a slew of Bracelet Race freerolls, and a smattering of PAD freerolls. Probably played in something like 16 or 20. Made 4 final tables, and final 2 in 3 others, and top 30 in a couple. If these were cash tournys I'd have made some bucks tonight.

I saw some of the sickest beats in those tournaments. I saw aces cracked by the oddest of hands not once, not twice, not three times, not even four times, but five whole times. Unreal. Twice were mine, and after witnessing my first beat and 3 others, I considered mucking preflop the next time I got them. Duh, I called. And got run down by J6. Check out the screen cap. Raised pre, BB & limper called. Flop was checked to me, I shove (was an overbet, hoping to block any flush draws), and get called in both spots:



I wish I could list the sick stuff I witnessed: people calling their stacks on the turn with gutshots, other craziness... I played solid, standard poker and got pretty deep.

Also played 2 SNGs. Busto in the first one just off the bubble, and 3rd in the other one, busted with AKo vs AKo and the guy catches running flush cards.

Tulalip tomorrow night!

Dreaming of Vegas

Every day for the past week and a half, I've taken about 1/2 my lunch hour (actually my lunch half-hour, but whatever) and scoured expedia.com, travelocity.com, lastminute.com, cheaptickets.com, cheapair.com, kayak.com - and probably some others - for airfare / hotel deals in Vegas.

Funny because I'm not interested in playing a WS0P event (scratch that: I'd play if I had the dough, I just don't have $1500 to plunk down on a tournament, esp. with the lack of tournament experience I have over the past year), I just want action. I want to spend a couple days sleeping as little as possible, parked at a juicy (but admittedly low stakes) poker table for as many hours as I can stand, taking an occasional break to bake in the desert sun, and maybe even catch one of the overpriced shows going on there (Ka would most likely be the show).

I just want to be around action. Memorial day weekend was almost like this at Tulalip for me: due to the huge bad beat jackpot that was going on, there were a slew of action junkies playing all limits throughout the weekend in hopes of hitting it. Some of the juiciest games I've seen up this way in a long time. I put in two long sessions (12+ hrs Sat-Sun and 18+hrs Sun-Mon). It was beautifully exhausting, and wonderfully exhilarating.

I have such fond memories of Caesar’s Palace $1/$3 game: was playing more like a $2/$5 game but with mostly players worse than me. Or the Venetian $1/$2 game, which was even more passive than Tulalip games (hard to believe!)...

And of course I'd love to wander through the Rio and see the round-the-clock degeneracy going on.

I really wish I'd been more mindful of my bankroll: I've been using winnings to pay for stuff (classes, contacts, new shoes, concert tickets...), that I really haven't grown my 'roll into anything significant. I play on a very short bankroll according to most 'expert opinions,' which means that 3 or 4 really bad sessions could make it vanish.

If I hadn't spent so much of my roll on stuff I'd have a little extra to spend on travel to Vegas and have a good chunk left for aggressive poker playing.

We'll see after this weekend: if I end up with a killer session Saturday night, I'll contemplate heading down the following Sat-Mon for a long weekend...

How do you get stats like this?

Guess this would be the epitome of "running good":

Weekend Degeneracy

Friday night: after dinner, I hop on the bus and head to Goldies for some limit poker. I played limit for the first time in MONTHS last week, and it was an interesting change of pace. Still not my cup of tea (I ended just below even for the two sessions), but I think it's a good thing to come back to every now and again. Limit is the place for good, solid, standard, ABC poker: nothing fancy about it.

Session time: 5 hours

Saturday I took a skate around Greenlake park, had some lunch, and around 2:30 headed up to the Tulalip. As I was sitting down to play (waited less than 5 minutes), a line of about 20 people came streaming through the doors to get on the poker lists. Within minutes the $1/$2 list was about 10 deep.

I played that session through the night / morning, and ended up leaving the casino around 6am.

Saturday to Sunday session time: 15 hours

Well, Sunday;s action didn't disappoint! Though I got their later than usual (7:00pm), I was sat within 5 minutes. Awesome action. Awesome. The $1/$2 game dwindled from 3 tables to 2 down to 1, and let me tell you: the 4am-7am table was juiiiiccceeyy!! That game never broke, and at 1pm on Memorial Day, there was a list about 10 deep for $1/$2.

Session time: 18.5 hours

And I have no clue how I am keeping my eyes open right now. Matter of fact I've been drifting in and out on occasion, and when I do it's interesting because whatever dreamlet starts going through my head starts to come out in what I'm typing (yes, I can type with my eyes closed and apparently half-conscious).

Poker goal / hand analysis:

Aggressive deep stack 6-handed home game. $0.50/$0.50 blinds, $100-200 buy in.

UTG: big stack ($300), very aggressive player. Apart from big hands, he has not had to show down many. Smart player.

SB: $130. Tight, careful player. Less aggressive than the other 5, but the only big re-raise he's put in were holding the nuts.

Hero on button: $150; tricky, slightly unorthodox image; winners I've recently shown down vary from 94o to flopped boats, turned flushes; successful bluffs I've shown down range from 2 overs to nothing near the board. I have a good feel for the risk-tolerance of the rest of the table; my steal-raises and re-raises have been spot-on all night, as have my value bets. I was way on top of my game: not to toot my own horn too much, but it was some of the best poker I've played in a while.

UTG raises to $2 (standard raise); Hero re-raises to $6 with AJ0. SB looks and thinks I open-raised to $6, comments "that's a big opening raise OK I call" (comma intentionally left out as he didn't speak it). He then sees that I reraised and says "Oh, that makes sense then."; UTG also calls.

FLOP: 9c Th Qh

SB bets $12; UTG instacalls. HERO announces raise; calls the $12, considers the pot, and raises $50. SB stares down HERO for a good 2 minutes. SB announces All In. UTG shows his cards to his neighbor and says "can you believe I have to throw this away?"

I ask for a count, it's $100 even to call.

I can't put him on KJ or J8: he's WAAAYYY too tight to call what he perceived to be a preflop overraise with these. It's possible he has AK/AQ/TT/99/QQ/KK/AA. Outside of these hands, all of which are ahead of me, I can't figure anything else out.

possibilities

I need an 8 or a K for the probable nuts. That's 8 outs, twice. ~32% to the winner. Slight chance an A will give me a winner, though I'm not convinced so I won't count that, and I have no backdoor flush.

And unfortunately, my emotions ran too hot for me to properly do simple math. See, I'm fairly bad at the math-end of poker (perhaps why I suck at limit). If I had done the math, I would have seen that I was being asked to call $100 to win $242. I was getting 2.42 to 1, which really meant that all I needed was a better than 29% chance to win to make the call. I actually had the perfect odds to call. Even if I was down to 7 outs, I would have been right at the borderline to call.

I mucked. And then unfortunately I paid $1 to see his cards. Guess what he had?

AJ.

Because I failed the math, I let myself get outplayed.

NEW POKER GOAL: become proficient at quickie pot-odds calculations, even under intense scrutiny and emotional duress.

FU FTP

I just got creamed by the FTP RNG.

First up: I got check/raised all-in on the flop:



Next up:
flop: Bet pot / call. Turn: bet pot / call. River: 1/2 pot, ALL IN....reluctant call:

I can almost understand the turn call: at least then he had a gutshot, but the flop?


LAST: preflop, UTG raises I RR, UTG calls. UTG check/raises all in on the flop.


I swear 1/2 the yahoos out there think a preflop raise must only mean AK, so no A and no K on the flop = golden.

I have run AMAZINGLY HORRIBLE online over the last month. My roll has been severely depleted. SEVERELY. Like the lowest it's been since my first deposit.

And don't read this post wrong: I love love LOVE all these plays by my opponents. Just the magnitude of the suckouts was kinda gross.

Oh, this was over 3 tables, over about an hour. And only the highlights. :)

Live 6 max this weekend

Sunday should be interesting: one of the guys on the Microsoft poker discussion list is putting together a regular deep stack 6-max home game: $0.25/$0.50 blinds with a $100-$200 buy in.

And I honestly have no idea what to expect. I know the guy organizing it plays higher than that: he's a Tulalip $3/5 regular. And I don't know if that means he's better than $1/2 players, or that he just has the money to risk more. I mean - I never felt out matched at the $3/5 games: I don't believe there's a ton of skill difference from the average $1/2 player to the average $3/5 player.

I'm not used to short-handed play, and am not sure what types of adjustments I'll need to make. I'm honestly anticipating come out of there lighter: I'm really hoping the caliber of play is going to be higher than I usually play. I need to learn more about this game, and if I play better players I'm bound to both learn, and lose - for a time at least.

The main difference won't be the stakes, though, but the stacks: I'm not used to playing against maybe one other deep stack. I don't know how much to adjust my play because of that.

I may do some strategy reading online the next couple of days, hoping to find something that'll help me out somewhat.

Live play: Tulalip $1/$2

Over the past 1.5 months I logged 7 live sessions, with 2 wins and 5 losses for a grand total of -$257. Not great. Not horrible, but not great.

I had been playing very well, I thought. But I took last weekend off, and the week away from the tables gave me time to reflect, and found what I thought were some leaks. Well, the two major ones were: 1) playing too many hands, and 2) bluffing players who were incapable of folding top pair no kicker. Simple stuff. Basic discipline.

Tonight, I logged two wins: 1 for $676, and one for $28 (at a local casino playing $2-40 spread).

Tulalip $1/$2.

Got sat not ten minutes after arriving, which is awesome. When I got to the table, I had to ask again if it was 1/2 or 3/5: two players had over $500 in front of them. One woman had $500 in green $25 chips alone! You don't see this too often in a game with a max buy-in of $100.

Table seemed pretty gambly, which meant that the best course of action was to tighten up and pick my spots; avoid marginal hands OOP, and value bet my strong hands on every street. Standard poker.

Pot of the night:

UTG with 44, make it $6 to go and 3 of us go to the flop:

FLOP: 934 rainbow

I don't like to slow play here: I lead out $10; folds to the button who raises to $30. I'm guessing an over pair, and knowing what I know from him in the past, he'll call most anything I put out there if he's got an over pair. I raise to $80, and he re-raises to $180.

This re-raise really got me. I took my time and thought about this. I started the hand with about $320. I start to consider whether I've got the underset: whether he really has 99. I begin to wonder how deep our stacks need to be to consider folding a set here.

Once I decide to call (spread-limit, so betting is capped after the 3rd raise), I take a little time to count out the chips and figure out how to get him to call for the rest of my chips: if he's got 99 then oh well, I reload.

I say "I call, and I'm all in blind on the turn." He INSTAcalls.

TURN:
[934] 6

RIVER:
[9346] 9

Villain: shows 88 for two pair, 8's and 9's
HERO: shows 44 for a full house, 4's full of 9's.

I've played this guy like 3 times over the past couple months, and won large pots from him each time. He says that here he put me solidly on AK, and figured I was trying to push him off his hand. It's amazing that he didn't consider the fact that I could have simply had 99/TT/JJ/QQ/KK either!

Thing is: in this guy's eyes, I'm the guy that raised on the button with 64o and almost cracked his KK when I flopped 2 pair (over a month ago). In his eyes, I'm the guy who will call or raise with seemingly any two cards, and an UTG "standard" 3x's raise means AK or some odd 10-7 or 9-6 etc.

Somehow, to him, I'm the guy who tries to buy pots with big bets. He apparently hadn't noticed how locked-down I was playing this session. Of course, this was also helped by the fact that earlier in the session I re-raise-shoved on the flop with nothing but a draw, was called, and got there. Thing is, in that situation I read the hands perfectly and was a mathematical favorite to win. He saw me push with a draw; I saw me value-betting. He probably considers me reckless.

I'm happy to have this reputation! :)

SO out of shape

Played the Riverchaser's tournament tonight. Oh BOY am I out of shape tournament-wise. I forgot simple things like stealing. And restealing.

I made it as far as I did, honestly, due to one supremely lucky hand.

I got home a lot later than I had anticipated, and was still cooking dinner when we started; I missed about 5 minutes or so. 48th hand I was logged in for, I have JJ in MP. One limper before me, I pot-raise, button (who's been playing over 60% of the hands) calls, and the limper calls. Flop is T33. Limper checks, I bet 3/4 pot, button min-raises, limper pushes. I know I'm behind, and decide "wtf" because, quite honestly, I was tired and hungry and if I'm done I eat in peace and start on my paper. I called. Button called.

Limper: AA
Button:Q3 (trip 3's)
Me: in 3rd place.

There's always the turn, though:


I love a good suckout after a hard day's work. That vaulted me to 1st in chips (I had been 3rd or 4th from the bottom before this hand).

Not much excitement. I have one hand that I apparantly confused my opponent: I raised from MP, got called by CO. Flop is JJ2 rainbow; I check-call a 1/2 pot bet. Turn is a 9, and I lead out with 1/2 pot. CO takes their time, types "?" and ends up folding. I'm curious what they had.

I blinded out for a while without getting a heckuva lot of playable anything, and as I mentioned at the start - stealing has left my vocabulary a bit. I need to warm myself back up to tournament play, as I felt totally paralyzed.


And the Screw of the Night™ in the cash game: I flop trip 6's and get it all in by the river:


Awesome.

Thanks to riggstad for the shoutout on BDR; and I won the 2nd Riverchaser's TOC, millerd33 won the first. Oh, he doesn't have a blog yet....nvm...

Interesting stats:

Poker Tracker stats for just over 21,000 hands, of all combinations of starting hands I've played:

- I've won more with 54o than all other hands except 7
- I've won more with JTs than AKs
- I've won more with 75o than AQs
- I've won more with 7's, 8's, and 3's (each, not combined) than 10's


...perhaps this is either just fluke stats, or an indication that I'm overplaying big unpaired cards?

I think maybe I'm not that good

I lost a bunch online this weekend. A couple years back I had made a pledge to never play on Sundays - for whatever reason, I took more horrible beats on Sundays than any other days. I played super-early Sunday morning (5am) and did great, but between 4 & 8pm over a couple sessions I dropped about 5 buy ins.

Unfortunately, only 2 of those were gross beats; the other 3 I pretty much paid off way too many winners. I shoulda stopped playing way before I did. Discipline is lacking; I see myself playing poorly and think I can change it and get better. I haven't been able to much lately. Tilt, I think this is referred to as. :)

Roll isn't near as healthy as I'd like, so I'm in rebuild mode. Not in danger of busting, but if I run like that too much I will be. For a little while I won't be ashamed of small hit and runs. I'm also focusing on fundamentals: will likely drop the 2nd table, and play more conservatively.

This hand was a dream, though - AA in the BB, 2 limpers called my raise. Then... ah, hell, see for yourself:


Flop gets checked around. Turn, "Lost with AK" shoves. Guess he wanted to chase out flush draws (too late!). I think of coming over the top, but I'm hoping button has a flush so I just call, as does the button. I shove the river, and get called. Awesome.

That was a $25 pot. I took the $17 profit (I bought in for $8), and left. I'm roll building, and until I can move back up to dime/quarter, I'm going by the Ferguson Challenge rule that if the money in front of me is 10% or more of my roll, I have to leave when the blinds come around. And, unfortunately, $25 is more than 10% of my roll, so I folded a few crap hands and left when the bb came back.

Heater

UTG+1 standard raise to $0.35. I re-raise to $1 with QQ. SB calls. Original raiser re-pops to $4.

I don't like my position here. I hate to lay down QQ, but I take my time, and fold. We've both got very deep stacks for this game, and if a flop without an A or a K comes, it's going to look safe and I'll get stacked if he's got AA or KK. If he doesn't, then so be it and I lost a buck: there will be better opportunities to get my money in.

I guess that can be an easy fold, but it didn't feel like one. I wonder what I would have done if we each started with $8: would I shove here, or fold?

Definitely glad I folded though:



Was on a bit of a heater tonight, as I left this table with $29, left my 2nd table with $8.55, and later on sat down at a table and had this happen on my 2nd hand:



I re-raised preflop, he called/called my flop bet and I got it all in on the turn.

Left that table at $24.

Tulalip in 12 hours!

Strength = Weakness & trusting your read

Both of these hands are from a Saturday $1/$2 (max $100 buy in) session at the Tulalip Casino. Same table, different villains.

Hand 1
Villain: CO, not there for too long (a couple hours tops), not involved in many pots - 2nd tightest player at the table, so I'd have to give him credit for a hand whenever he fires at a pot. $65 or so.

Hero: BB, likely seen as very loose, rather aggressive, makes many steal attempts (read: bluffs a lot), especially on ragged flops from the blinds, and from any position on the turn if the flop checks around. About $175

Bunch of limpers, Villain limps, SB completes, Hero (8h 10d) checks. Pot ~$14

FLOP: 8 6 10 rainbow

Hero: Bets $15
Folds to Villain: All-in for $65

While top 2 is typically an insta-call, when someone playing as tight as this guy has goes all in, I have to give some consideration to the possibility of being beat (I've only folded top 2 pair once in recent weeks, and was correct - my opponent showed his flopped bottom set when I folded top 2 face-up). I doubt 79 is in his range (too tight); 88, 66, and 10-10 are all in his range, 66 being the most likely (due to my hand).

I ask him if he flopped a set - he stares at the table.

I turn my hand over, Villain looks down at it, blinks, and then looks up and stares right at me without flinching. He looks strong. He's acting strong.

...which is exactly where he gave it away. He "acted" too strong. Most folks with a lock on a hand are going to be acting much, much more casually, relaxed, and care free. He was "displaying" strength to appear threatening and, thus, get me to NOT call.

After 5 seconds of him staring unflinchingly at me, I call. He tables AA, and my 2 pair hold up.

----------------------------------------------------


Hand 2:
Villain (BB): I've played with him 4 times over the past 4 weeks, felting him once. He's a decent player who thinks he is a lot better than he is. Tends to overplay hands like TPTK and flushes on paired boards. He's observant enough to know I stab at a lot of pots with air. He's a nice guy, and a typical, standard tight-passive player.

Hero (Button): Seen as very loose, rather aggressive. Villain has called me down with bottom pair and 2nd pair when I've fired 3 bullets from the button (he was right once, wrong once). I've only shown big hands (sets / boats / straights / quads); I've shown very few of my many bluffs (if caught on the river I just say "good call" and muck after they show) but have recently told the table they need to start calling me more after stealing yet another pot. Villain knows I bluff often and semi-bluff regularly.

Hero: Raises to $8 with 4s 6s
SB: Calls
Villain: says "Yea, I know your button play, I'll give you some action."

FLOP:4c 6h 8s

SB: Check
Villain: Check
Hero: Bets $15
(SB: Folds)
Villain Raises to $30 (min raises are surprisingly standard at Tulalip).

I ask him how much he has left ($59). I decide to call (I'm mildly worried about a set and decide to re-evaluate on the turn).

Turn:[4c 6h 8s] 5c

Villain: All in
Hero: I ask if he has "one of my crazy hands like 79"; he doesn't say a word, he sits back and stares at the board (I don't think he's capable of semi-bluff-raising with the OESD here anyway).

I turn my hand over to show the two pair. He leans forward to look at my cards, then looks up and stares directly in my eyes, not moving.

This villain, again, gives it away right there, the same way the previous villain did. He was staring directly into my eyes as if to say "I'm stronger than you and if I look strong enough and confident enough I know you won't call."

I count out my chips, give him one more look (still staring at me, threateningly), and push my chips in.

He turns over KK and says, "I didn't put you on raising with crap like that." River is a 7, so the straight on the board chops the pot. But only 8 cards could've given him a win (and 4 gave him a tie), so when I made the decision I had him on the ropes.

Moral of the story:
1) Trust your read. If someone looks "too strong," then it's probably an act. With monster hands, players will typically act either relaxed or excited (shaking hands, trembling voice, etc); when a player looks strong they often are attempting to get you to fold
2) One-gappers are awesomely deceptive hands!